Of course, that schedule assumes that you can get your permits in a timely fashion and that your firm has ready access to a few hundred million dollars. In other words, it's a best-case scenario.
Yes, agreed, I have made some assumptions. But I am referring to expansions at existing refineries. Grass roots refineries are a far different animal. The only grass roots refinery I am aware of, in the USA, is the project in Yuma, Az. which has been around for at least 3 years, maybe more like five. They have just recently been permitted. Construction may begin in 2007, more likely 2008 (if they get funding).
Other grass roots projects in Mexico, Canada and Chile may very well end up exporting their gasoline to the USA.