If you want to stop PIAPS, bring a bad linebacker.
Posted on 04/11/2006 5:09:39 PM PDT by Jean S
Suddenly, thankfully, it does not seem that Hillary Clinton is on an automatic trajectory to become the next Democratic nominee for president. Two recent polls suggest problems that may loom in her path.
From New York state comes the latest John Zogby poll, forecasting a race for the Senate instead of a cakewalk. For the first time since GOP wannabe Jeanine Pirro dropped out of the race, polls indicate that New Yorkers hare having second thoughts about reelecting Hillary.
While the former first lady was leading her main opponent, John Spencer, 61-31 in Zogby’s Jan. 13 poll, her lead is down to 54-33 in his survey of March 27. Zogby reflects increases in Hillary’s negatives across the board — among Democrats, Republicans and independents. He also shows a sharp drop in moderate and conservative support for Hillary, an indication that the shrill tone of her national attacks on the Bush administration and all things Republican is destroying the carefully cultivated bipartisan image she has sold to New York.
The drop in New York is especially interesting since Spencer has yet to wage any campaign. He has not advertised or been heavily covered by the left-leaning Empire State press corps. Hillary is dropping on her own.
For his part, Spencer is likely to get enough votes at the Republican state convention to stop his primary opponent, K.T. McFarland, from getting on the ballot. While she could petition her way on, that is a very hard task in New York, where one must get signatures in more than half of the counties. In some of these places, Republicans are hard to find.
And on the national level, a revealing insight comes from the Marist Poll of Feb. 22. The survey reported that Hillary finished a far-ahead first among her rivals for the Democratic nomination, getting 40 percent of the Democratic primary vote to former vice-presidential nominee John Edwards’s 16 percent and Sen. John Kerry’s 15 percent.
But, with Al Gore figured into the race, Hillary’s vote share dropped to 33 percent, with the former vice president at 17 percent, Edwards at 16 percent and Kerry at 11 percent. A 33-17 lead over Gore sounds a lot more shaky than 40-16 over Edwards. (And remember, Gore has not even hinted at a candidacy. Once he does — if he does — his numbers are likely to increase rapidly.)
Gore turns Hillary’s left flank and would be able to use his past and present opposition to the war and hefty environmental record to attract liberals repelled by Hillary’s off-again, on-again flirtation with centrism.
Democratic animosity toward the Bush administration, approaching an all time high, means that the 2008 primaries are likely to be a kind of audition to see which candidate would do the best against the Republicans. Hillary is suspect because of the way she polarizes the voters. She doesn’t polarize Democrats — they all love her — but even the most enthusiastic of her base voters grasps that she is a red flag to independents and Republicans.
As for Gore, he has already proved that he can get more votes than the Republican. He just needs to get them in the right states this time. Gore’s popular-vote success is likely to play well when Democrats contemplate the Kerry debacle, just as Nixon’s narrow defeat in 1960 looked pretty good after the pasting Johnson gave Goldwater in 1964, good enough to give Nixon another chance.
The “electability” issue is the soft-core version of Hillary negatives, which could undermine her in 2008.
Meanwhile, Spencer can also run on a soft-core negative. Rather than have to attack Hillary frontally, he can point to her looming presidential candidacy, there for all to see with each day’s national speech, and note that he is the only candidate running for senator from New York who wants to be senator from New York.
When Hillary ran in 2000, few believed she would run for president. It was not an issue. Her gullible supporters believed that she was moving to New York so that she could become a senator, but it did not enter their minds that she only wanted to be a senator in order to become a president. Now that the second shoe is dropping, New York voters are obviously reassessing their view of Hillary’s commitment to their state. And to be asked to vote for her reelection when she obviously will move heaven and earth not to have to serve out her term, may be too much for New Yorkers to put up with.
If Spencer can get the funding his standing in the polls warrants, he could be part of a one-two punch (with Al Gore providing the knockout) to stop a second Clinton presidency.
Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race.
If Gore gets in the race, Hillary is toast, and the nomination will probably go to Warner.
Gore has to know a lot of secrets about Bill and Hillary. Gore and Hillary will destroy each other, and it will be a family feud for all to see. I am looking forward to it.
I want Hillary to run for president on the Democratic ticket more than I want anything else in the world.
If you want to stop PIAPS, bring a bad linebacker.
Mister Morris, respectfully, you have a unique talent for making the fever swamps sound like rationality.
While I share your opinion of Hillary Rodham, I believe that her tentacles reach much more deeply into Hollywood, network media, union and legal groups than does former, and failed Vice President Gore. Gore has an insurmountable low standing for the primaries. Wishful thinking won't change that.
Furthermore, I believe that no potential dem primary candidate has the nerve to bring up any of the following:
-Whitewatergate
-Mena
-FBI files (and Craig Livingstone
-Travel gate
-FALN pardons
-the Barrett report
-Peter Paul
-the Wellesley thesis, (and the subject of mentor Saul Alinsky)
-paranoia, the vast rightwing conspiracy, and the calls for "investigation" of those with whom she disagrees
-and, the whereabouts of some missing Whitehouse silverware.
For these and many more reasons (eg anticipated voter fraud, the clandestine arrangement for a 3rd party candidate, and etc.), Hillary has a lock on the dem nomination, and has some scary potential for the national election.
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I heartily agree.
Hillary is ONLY formidable from a distance
but NOT when folks get a closeup look at her.
Her eyes pierce out every once and a while, like Jimmy Carter's do,
wicked scary!!!
and the phrase "my pretty" is ever present on her tongue.
Talk to the toe, Dick....ya putz.
<< How can one stop Hillary Clinton? >>
Sic Mia T! and Alamogirl on 'er.
Now ask me a hard one.
I bet she'd pay good money for those negatives.
Well, he thinks algore would win...that should give us a clue about his viewpoint.
Exactly. The only question, is how many Dems know it?
Stoppable by someone other than Condi Rice? This guy is laughable.
I've always thought that Hillary was overrated as a politician. It's going to interesting to watch the what happens when Hillary runs for reelection, especially if Spencer can make it a close race.
Hillary has none of her husband's political skill. His charm allowed people to forgive his moral failings. Hillary is as charming as a king cobra. She is shrill and mean. She is very beatable, either by a democrat challenger in the primaries, or by a Republican in the general election.
I really do.
"Splash water on her?"
ROFLMAO. Yep. That, or drop a house on her.
Sorry everybody.. Spencer has no chance. At least, however, unlike Pirro, Spencer has the opportunity to run a principled campaign that will help the party in the long run. Don't forget, without Goldwater's principled campaign, we would not have had Reagan. That is what the pundits miss. If you are going to lose, you should lose in a manner that leads the youth to commit themselves to our ideology. We have a hope on that with Spencer, which we did not have with Hillary.
I get the feeling that I'm not the only one who pictures Margaret Hamilton upon hearing Hillary(!)'s voice.
This tells us more about Dick Morris than it does about Hillary Clinton. This guy loves polls.
What????? Everybody knew the reason for the carpetbag tour of duty in NY was so Hillary could run for President with some semblance of qualifications. It was very, very widely and publicly discussed at the time. Was there anyone who didn't know? What is Morris talking about?
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