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In no way do I wish to diminish the concerns we have. But for those that think they are going to have a fully functional low yield atomic bomb any time soon, I think we should attempt to put things in perspective.
The amount of 3-4% enriched uranium they fianally managed to produce from those 160 some centrifuges is rather miniscule. Perhaps a few hundred millgrams at most.
This is not some production process that is ready to start pumping out a lot of fission grade uranium. It is more on a lab level.
What they have accomplished is the ability to operate this little cascaded system (both parallel and series centifuge units that must be synchornize [rpms] in such a manner as to obtain the final product. A laboratory achievment. Now they have to be able to either build literally thousands of centifuges of a similar design and couple them together in a given manner. It is not just a manner of piping them together in some half assed way. It gets complicated.
Each stage within a series path must be fine tuned so to speak to operate at a certain rpm range and perhaps baffling windows and other physical parts of the system must be monitored and controlled (automated eventually) to best extract ever smaller amounts of only U₂₃₅in any particular sub set within the series groups, and at the same time each parallel group at a given level must also be closely sinked to maintain the same flow rates etc..
Now imagine this having to work with a few thousand centifuges and all the automated equipment, sensors etc., that go into such a system.
It may take them a few years to get to this point. Like I say, it is not just a matter of hooking up a bunch of units and pushing a button to turn them on.
Now keep in mind one must be able to produce at least two or more sub critical masses of U₂₃₅ which quantity depends entirely on how effecient their eventual system can obtain. That is. The lower the percentage of fission grade uranium the more is needed to produce a given amount of energy during the fission process. So if they some how could produce 90% then their bomb would need a lot of fission grade uranium. Which means it could take a few years just to be able to produce enough material for one very low yield atomic weapon.
If you have followed me thus far. Now they must design a reliable trigger system, do many tests to perfect it. They must produce or somehow obtain the required inner casings that would hold the sub critical massess. You just down load a say stainless steel container with a given amount of fission grade material. You must provide fast neutron absorbant materials properly into the physical design.
After all the stages, which only a few are briefly made here are complete, one must then assemble the bomb.
Then must test it. How many bombs will have to be test to prove any reliability into the system? Perhaps two or three for any particular design.
Bingo. Bomb goes off in some underground prepared blast hole, and we know exactly when they set it off.
So for those that only react on the fly and do not have any basics behind them as how difficult and time consuming the task is to make even one small yield atomic weapon, perhaps you can at least see, it is not so easy to do.
Our Intel feels they are years away from being at a point they can actually contruct a bomb that is controllable per design specs.
I do not diminish our concern. Believe me. But don't think they are going to cleverly make some little suit case nuke they can cart off to Israel or the US any time soon.
If you believe this due to wild articles you read, then you are being deceived.
But I am all for stopping them from even having the chance to produce such weapons in the future. So please read what I write before you start on some flame routine that shows your not thinking rationally about what is at stack.
Lastly.
Their goon ball president is a bit on the bragging side when he said they are now a member of the nuclear club. Not really, not that it matters. Being in the nuclear club indicates you have functional nuclear weapons. Iran may be five to ten years off, from achieving that level, given the best opportunities to obtain all the things that are required in the manufacturing and design stages.
If it was that easy to build a functional atomic bomb. Believe me there would be a lot more countries sipping tea at that club house.

"I do not diminish our concern. Believe me. But don't think they are going to cleverly make some little suit case nuke they can cart off to Israel or the US any time soon."

Thanks for all the detail.

What about 'dirty bombs?' They're a lot closer.

In no way do I wish to diminish the concerns we have. But for those that think they are going to have a fully functional low yield atomic bomb any time soon, I think we should attempt to put things in perspective.

If the United States could, over 60 years ago, develop an atomic bomb in a few short years, I find it very hard to believe that an oil-rich nation like Iran could not develop a weapon just as quickly.

Also, whatever we "know" about Iran's nuclear program is probably just the tip of the iceberg.

If Iran claims to have officially reached a certain stage of nuke development, and the IAEA agrees, we can reasonably assume that they are much further along than they have admitted.

Nuclear bombs are 60-year old technology; how hard could it be for a large, wealthy nation to develop "The Bomb" if they are motivated and dedicated?

As the guy in the Fram automotive commercial used to say: "You can pay me now, or you can pay me later..."

Of course, your analysis assumes that the Iranians have to build a bomb the way we built a bomb...from scratch. That assumes no help from that rogue scientist (Khan?) from Pakistan and no help from North Korea, no help from China.

How many lives are you willing to bet?

Now they must design a reliable trigger system, do many tests to perfect it.

I think you're referring to a plutonium-based "Fat Man" design.

"Our" first uranium-based bomb, "Little Boy", did not, to the best of my knowlege, have a particularly sophisticated trigger, and was untested prior to first use.