To: Marine_Uncle
In no way do I wish to diminish the concerns we have. But for those that think they are going to have a fully functional low yield atomic bomb any time soon, I think we should attempt to put things in perspective. If the United States could, over 60 years ago, develop an atomic bomb in a few short years, I find it very hard to believe that an oil-rich nation like Iran could not develop a weapon just as quickly.
Also, whatever we "know" about Iran's nuclear program is probably just the tip of the iceberg.
If Iran claims to have officially reached a certain stage of nuke development, and the IAEA agrees, we can reasonably assume that they are much further along than they have admitted.
Nuclear bombs are 60-year old technology; how hard could it be for a large, wealthy nation to develop "The Bomb" if they are motivated and dedicated?
As the guy in the Fram automotive commercial used to say: "You can pay me now, or you can pay me later..."
23 posted on
04/13/2006 1:52:44 AM PDT by
sargon
(How could anyone have voted for the socialist, weak-on-defense fraud named John Kerry?)
To: sargon
I'll stand by my statements. But as I indicated I am not trying be hardhead. What I did not say is I realize they are doing their best to work toward building a bomb. And there are other ways of reaching that point other then the centifugal method. America used a diffusion method years back to obtain the required amount of U-235. And once one has an operational reactor, given time, one can extract enough PU-239 from spent fuel rods, to create a plutonium bomb. Of course that type bomb's mechanisms differ greatly then what is required for a uranium bomb.
In either case, however. Various sources say they need a few years or more, based on where we believe they are currently.
And if they where to obtain enough fission grade U-235 from outside sources, then the equation changes drastically. So I keep an open mind. It is just that the announcements can tend to be on the sensational and may not reflect the reality of where they really are at.
If the reality is they only have this tiny centifuge cascade system, then they are no where the point where they could hope to produce fissle uranium. It is more complicated then is being brought out. The process involved requires many series stages of these units to be able to seperate out enough of the U-235 isotope from the U-238.
What Iran has managed to do with this little unit is finally reach the point where they where able to seperate out a very little quantity of U-235. How much we don't know. Most probably a very small quantity. Hardly enough for instance to fill one fuel rod for a nuclear reactor. Plus this percentage of enrichment was less then 5%, must probably around 3.5%. Let alone reach a stage where one requires a much larger seperation unit (literally thousands of sub units connected in series, and paralalled in equal qunatities), to get to a obtain even small amounts of the required enrichment to use as a bomb. It is simple as that. It they are prevented from obtaining the required hardware to build what is required to eventually build a bomb then they will have to investigate alternative methods such as plutonium extraction from spent fuel rods. Which then brings up a whole new set of issues. I'll leave it at that.
28 posted on
04/13/2006 7:39:11 AM PDT by
Marine_Uncle
(Honor must be earned)
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