Posted on 04/08/2006 6:09:19 PM PDT by Flavius
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates - It's not often the United States, Israel and the Persian Gulf Arab states worry about the same thing.
But right now, they are all focused on Iran.
The country's growing militarism - trumpeted this week in missile tests and military maneuvers - plus its influence in Iraq and its controversial president, appear to be making some Arab states more nervous that there could be menace in Tehran's ways.
Yet, many here have been reluctant to speak out, because they feel stuck between favoring Iran or favoring its arch-enemy Israel, both states with which Arabs have fought bloody wars.
"There is the feeling that attacking Iran at the moment plays into the hands of Israel. Gulf countries don't want to play that game," said political analyst Abdul Khaleq Abdulla of Dubai. "But Tehran deserves a lot of this. Unfortunately, it's going in a very worrying direction."
The Arab world has long had on-and-off tense relations with Persian Iran. Many Arab countries backed Saddam Hussein in Iraq's invasion of Iran in the 1980s. They also have worried for decades that Iran's Shiite-majority Islamic theocracy could spill over onto into their largely Sunni countries, all of which have Shiite minorities.
Relations have soured since the election last year of firebrand President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Since then, Abdulla said, Arab Gulf countries have supported moves against Iran's nuclear program, which, despite Tehran's assurances to the contrary, many fear is aimed at creating weapons.
Gulf Arab countries also would be likely to back U.N. Security Council moves against Iran should Tehran refuse to halt uranium enrichment, said Mustafa Alani, a military analyst with the Gulf Research Center in Dubai.
"If the Security Council imposes restrictions on Iran, these countries will be happy to join those sanctions or boycott against Iran," Alani said.
Yet the worry over Iran does not mean Arab nations totally support the U.S. position toward Tehran.
Many say their greatest concern is that the United States might launch military action against Iran - a move they fear would destabilize the region and draw retaliation against Arab states.
Many Persian Gulf Arabs say the United States empowered Iran by invading Iraq in 2003. The Iraq war destroyed an Arab military, led by Saddam, seen regionally as a bulwark against Iranian domination of the Persian Gulf, while leaving Baghdad open to Iranian political manipulation, Abdulla said.
Top intelligence officers from several Arab countries, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have been meeting in hopes of forging a coordinated effort to block Iran's interference in Iraq, several Arab diplomats said this week. The meetings came after several Arab leaders voiced concerns about possible Shiite domination of Iraq.
Since Iran began publicizing military maneuvers and tests of missiles and torpedoes this week, Arab pundits also have warned that Ahmadinejad appears to be exhibiting the type of defiance that has brought down other leaders.
Kuwait's daily newspaper Al-Siyassah said Wednesday that Iran's military swagger resembled that of Gamal Abdul-Nasser's Egypt and Saddam's Iraq just before they provoked punishing attacks by the West.
In Monday's Asharq al-Awsat, a London paper, Abdel Rahman al-Rashed, director of Al-Arabiya TV channel in Dubai, went further, saying Ahmadinejad's war games were giving America "an excuse to start a showdown."
"Iran is wasting money and inviting the hostility of the world, especially the world's big players," al-Rashed wrote. "A future war will destroy everything Iran has achieved in a matter of days, if not hours, as happened in the case of Saddam."
Not all Persian Gulf Arab leaders agree, and Iran assured its neighbors that the maneuvers and missile tests aren't aimed at them. It made clear they were meant to impress the United States and Israel.
Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal said the kingdom sees no threat in Iran's military maneuvers or its civilian nuclear power ambitions. Instead, Prince Saud, who said he would soon visit Iran, said it was Israel's nuclear monopoly that posed the greatest threat to the region.
Despite the general nonchalance over Iran's military tests, there is unease over Tehran's intentions.
"No expert in the region takes this backward technology seriously," Alani said of Iran's missiles and torpedoes. "What is frightening is the message the new Iranian administration is conveying: They are ready for a challenge, and they are willing to take that challenge as far as possible."
I can understand their dilemma. On one hand, they have the wildly unpredictable and aggressive state of Israel's hegemonic designs on the Arab world, on the other is the peaceful, fun loving Persians and their eminently stable leader.
Iranians are Persians and Iran is not an Arab state. Theres a long history of war and prejudice on both sides that's why the Arab states don't trust Iran.
I guess it is a good thing I am not President.
I would immediately bomb the nuke facilities in Iran, with Isreal's intellegence and help, and 12 hours later invade syria.
You have stated something that is correct, but is not mutually exclusive with my original statement.
In addition to the historical prejudice and mistrust of the Persians, the neighboring Arab states doubtlessly have made more practical decisions about the negative consequences of a 150 megaton thermonuclear weapon detonating a few hundred miles from their border.
Arabs and Persians don't get along period. They are mortal enemies. I have heard in Persian TV news, they often make anti-Arab remarks. Persians are different from Arabs for one. Persian is Indo-European and their last names resemble that of Europe.
This is perhaps the wedge that will permit Israel (and/or the US) to strike Iran and destroy their nuclear capability.
Also recall that Iran already has some land mobile ICBMs bought from the Soviet Union. One also has to take them out at the same time.
I hope the people in the blue suits are working this problem and have come up with some good solutions.
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