jec41: "What on earth are you talking about. A Chinese engineer designed Bowing's first seaplane in 1916 and they have always maintained ties with China. The Chinese already make parts and buy many planes from Boeing. In fact a new 600 million dollar contract. Put tariffs on China they cancel contracts with American companies. It would lay off 25,000 at Boeing alone."
Chinese sales represented 6% of Boeing's sales in 2005. Boeing had 150,000 workers as of year-end. A 25,000 worker lay-off would represent a 16.6% reduction in the work force. I doubt the end of Chinese sales would cause a 25,000 worker lay-off at Boeing. What it would mean, though, is big time damage, from a cost standpoint, for China, which doesn't make its own planes - at least not in this segment. Airbus could really stick it to the Chinese airlines, since the large civilian jetliner business is really a two-horse race.
Bottom line? My feeling is that China wouldn't stick it to Boeing. They'd focus on products in industries where there are many manufacturers and substitutes are plentiful.
I think it's easy to exaggerate the impact on the US of even the most extreme trade war between the two countries - a total trade embargo. US exports to China in 2004 were $35b out of a total GDP of $11,667, or roughly 0.3% of American industrial output. Chinese exports to the US for the same year were $196b, or roughly 14% of Chinese industrial output. If US exports to China had ended in 2004, it would have shaved 0.3% from 2005 US industrial output, taking GDP growth from 3.5% to 3.2%. If Chinese exports to the US had ended in 2004, it would have shaved 14% from 2005 Chinese industrial output, taking China from a 9.2% growth rate to a -4.8% growth rate.
Bottom line here is that in the event of a total trade embargo between the two nations, US growth slows, but China goes into severe recession. The imbalance between the impact on the US and its foreign adversaries of trade embargoes is the reason why these adversaries are always clamoring for the removal of these sanctions, even as they continue to view Uncle Sam as their mortal enemy.
Business usually works out its trade differences and most are resolved reasonable. Its when govt. gets involved that the real problems start. However all the government sanctions in the world will not stop commerce. They can only delay it. The real problem for the US would be that they have few merchant ship if there was a trade war. The three largest shipping lines in the world are located in Hong Cong, Indonesia, and Dubai.