Nelson Has 22-Point Lead Over Harris In Senate Race

Quinnipiac no internals released poll ^ | 2/24/06

[SoFloFreeper]

In Florida's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson leads U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris, his likely Republican challenger, 53 - 31 percent, similar to his lead in August 31, 2005, and November 15, 2005, Quinnipiac University polls. Republicans back Harris 62 - 22 percent, while Democrats back Nelson 82 - 7 percent and independent voters go with the Democrat 55 - 23 percent.

"U.S. Rep. Harris has gained no ground against Sen. Nelson, who has a lukewarm 49 - 20 percent approval rating for the third poll in a row," Brown said.

[devane617]

bill1952, I just moved back to Texas from living in Florida. I know about FL politics, and voted in the past few elections in FL.

[Coop]

One factor I have yet to see addressed in this argument over Harris' prospects for Nelson's seat is the following (addressed frequently by Zell Miller):

As recently as the 1960 elections, Democrats controlled all 22 seats in the 11 states that comprised the Old Confederacy. Republicans did not make their breakthrough until 1961 in Texas. John Tower, whom Democratic vice presidential candidate Lyndon B. Johnson defeated by 17 points in 1960 while also running to retain his Senate seat in case Richard Nixon beat John Kennedy, narrowly won a run-off election in May 1961 with 50.6 percent to capture the Senate seat vacated by LBJ.

Thus was the Democratic monopoly in the South broken. Three years later Strom Thurmond of South Carolina switched parties, becoming the second Republican senator in the South. Still, by controlling 20 of the 22 Southern seats after the 1964 elections, Democrats reached their largest Senate membership level (68) since 1939 (69). Never again would their majority be so large. For Republicans, Barry Goldwater's victories in five contiguous states in the Deep South (Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina) represented the silver lining in their 1964 election debacle.

However, even after Richard Nixon's massive re-election in 1972, when he won landslide victories throughout the South, the Republicans managed to control only seven Southern Senate seats. After the 1976 election, only five Southern Senate seats were held by Republicans. Four of the 12 Senate seats captured in 1980 with the help of Ronald Reagan's coattails included Alabama, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. Following Ronald Reagan's 1984 re-election landslide, Republican-controlled Southern Senate seats totaled 10, still less than half. After Bill Clinton's 1996 re-election, in which Democrats suffered a net loss of two Senate seats as Republicans won Democratic seats in Alabama and the president's native Arkansas, the Republicans controlled 15 Southern Senate seats. By then, the South had become instrumental to the Republican Party's 55-seat majority.

During the 2002 and 2004 elections, the Republicans swept all nine open Southern Senate seats. Today, Republicans occupy 18 of the 22 seats of the Old Confederacy.

http://www.washtimes.com/op-ed/20050619-111016-5632r.htm

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Granted, this is not an open seat, but the macro shift is still in the GOP's favor. I'm not saying Ms. Harris will win, but to say she can't win (especially now that Jeb and Dubya are warming up to her) is really kinda silly.

[devane617]

Let's make a wager Bill...I'll buy you a six-pack and a big cigar if she wins. You agree to do the same for me if she loses...

[Coop]

I for one will not do voluntary work for Harris.

But I'm bettin' if she loses you'll be first in line complaining "what a lousy campaign!" she ran.

[oyez]

I never will forget KH, probably with out sleep for more than forty hours, certifying George W. Bush as the Presidential winner. for Florida, while the Democrats has a massive hemorrhage. It was a golden moment in American politics.

[Coop]

But you said she can't win. Why would you place a bet on a certain outcome?

[Redmen4ever]

First, Florida tilts Republican.
Second, the Florida economy is in high gear (and has been for some time).
Third, Crist will be elected by Governor by 10 or more.
Therefore, fourth, Harris will not lose by 20.

BUT ... here's the big question ... how many Senate seats will be in play come September? IF we're defending in states like Ohio, Missouri and Tennessee (in addition to Pennsylvania), it's hard to see where we'll find the resources to be competitive in second-tier pick-up opportunities such as Florida.

On the other hand, if we're comfortably ahead in the states I've mentioned, then we'll not only fully-fund first-tier pick-up opportunities (Minnesota, Maryland and New Jersey), but also some of the second-tier states. In this more optimistic scenario, Harris has to close the gap sufficiently, relative to states like Washington and Wisconsin, to warrant a major infusion of resources during the home stretch.

Let's face it, we could be doing a lot better in Florida if Jeb Bush or Tommy Franks ran for Senator, or if Crist and Gallagher could get together and decide who would run for Governor and who would run for Senator. But, it now looks as though Harris will be our candidate, and we're going to have to make this work.

[george wythe]

In business, we don't throw good money after bad.

I'd save my energy to work for Republican candidates who are able to energize the base and attract the fence-sitters.

With Martinez, the polls were not very promising, but he was able to keep us focused on the victory, despite his rookie mistakes.

With Harris, it's different. Every time I discuss Harris with the local Republican heavy hitters, I don't sense any serious enthusiasm for her.

Btw, Nelson has been good in dealing with the business community. For instance, his staff goes to the bat in their favor all the time when businesses run into federal issues with federal agencies. He has also built strong relationships with local business leaders.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"One factor I have yet to see addressed in this argument over Harris' prospects for Nelson's seat is the following (addressed frequently by Zell Miller)"

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I think the reason it is seldom addressed is because Florida is not really a "Southern" state anymore. North Florida and parts of Central Florida are still Southern, but South Florida (the most populated part of the state) is a completely different political animal.

But President Bush carried Florida by 52%-47% in 2004 and Jeb won reelection in a landslide in 2002, so of course a Republican has a chance of beating a freshman liberal Democrat Senator. If Republicans give Harris half a chance, she might just do it, too.

[AmishDude]

Bill Nelson received over $20000 from Abramoff clients. In the top tier of Senators in that regard.

[Brilliant]

But one of those 2 seats that the Dems control is in Florida, and until Martinez won, the Dems controlled both Senate seats. Remember that Martinez won by a hair against someone he should have clobbered. What's really distressing is that the Dems have fielded such an eminently beatable candidate, and the GOP has failed to capitalize on it.

[Coop]

With Harris, it's different. Every time I discuss Harris with the local Republican heavy hitters, I don't sense any serious enthusiasm for her.

So because you hang out with defeatists and pessimists, you won't support Harris because she can't fire up the defeatists and pessimists. Fascinating approach!!

Like I said, you'll be first in line...

[Coop]

Remember that Martinez won by a hair against someone he should have clobbered.

Sez who? You? The anti-cheerleader?

the GOP has failed to capitalize on it.

No, YOU insist on throwing a tantrum because things haven't gone according to your little plan, so now you and George will sit back and wait until it's all over - so you can either bitch and moan if she loses or hop on that ol' bandwagon if she wins.

But one of those 2 seats that the Dems control is in Florida, and until Martinez won, the Dems controlled both Senate seats.

Uh, I doubt you meant to, but thanks for emphasizing my point.

[Coop]

The release has 429 Dems (40%), 443 Pubbies (41%), and 204 indies/others (19%).

[danamco]

What can we do down here in Florida? Nelson is an idiot.



Just relax, wishful thinking, think about the source, a university, what do they teach about politics???

We heard exactly the same tunes how mcbride would sweep Jeb Bush up from the floor!
Jeb won in a landslide!!
We are a Red State, and we DON'T vote for super-liberals like bill nelson!!!

[Coop]

Does anyone here know where I can obtain a "Harris for Senate" t-shirt or two?

Here's a resource.

[RinaseaofDs]

"I will not soon forget the Fox interview with her maybe six months back or so, when she made sure her, uh, assets were profiled during the interview by awkwardly turning sideways while talking about her candidacy."

I'm sorry I missed that. . .

[danamco]

Never understood the mindset of Florida voters who elected Graham to Gov. and then Senate.


At that time we were in a predominately blue State with many blue faces. That color has changed gradually to a bright RED color and Jeb Bush has secured that color with outstanding leadership skills including leading us through many hurricanes during his tenure and permeating his politics into our State House!!!

[danamco]

But President Bush carried Florida by 52%-47% in 2004 and Jeb won reelection in a landslide in 2002, so of course a Republican has a chance of beating a freshman liberal Democrat Senator. If Republicans give Harris half a chance, she might just do it, too.



With that kind of real exit polls, which the LSM faked during 2004 after they lost in 2000, please explain to me why in the world we here would be voting for a super-left liberal like nelson? Just remember it us her in Florida who are the voters, NOT the other 49 States!!!
Hmmmm???

[rollo tomasi]

I was 13 in 1982 and when Graham was facing reelection even as a puberty stricken boy I could tell this guy was a looney toon. Heck Graham increased taxes each year (After campaigning for the opposite and actually saying he did not raise taxes) in office and the Florida seals still bought his crap (Pathetic Workdays pandering I guess).

Goes to show party loyalty is the pathway to ignorance and bad government.