"And you contend that this assesment is correct, and that a central government - any central government - would have prevented it?"
Would you consider the prevention of the deaths of approximately 10-15% of the population to be a legitimate function of a central government?
It would depend on the circumstances. If the demographics are right, having 10-15% of a population die of old age in a 10-15 year period wouldn't be unusual. What do you think government would do about this, and why don't you answer the original question?