[infominer]

Judith Anne, All

Open question, speculation - As I haven't been able to correlate where the birds in Italy were found with H5N1 in comparison to the location of the Winter Olympic Games in Turin - what is the likelihood of increased transmissibilty to other regions of the world?

[LowRecoil]

Wanted to throw something out as food for thought. If H5N1 mutates to h2h, and maintains a 50% mortality rate or greater, then consider the current population of the world, which, according to the census is:
02/01/06 6,494,899,830

That could potentially mean 3,247,449,915 could die if the entire world were infected. Now, what do you think are reasonable estimates, if that is unreasonable? In the 1918 pandemic, at least 40mil people died worldwide. Anyone seen a consensus on estimates?

[Kelly_2000]

"what is the likelihood of increased transmissibilty to other regions of the world?"

Influenza and in particular avian influenza is endemic in all countries where migrating fowl can be found. This is the case every year. It is a natural mechanism and an inevitable outcome that a highly pathogenic variant emerges, it is as inevitable as complex organisms emerging from simple proteins lets put it that way. EVOLUTION is not static it is not occurring at the centennial, millennial, aeon level or greater, but rather it happens second by second by second....

Sobering thought yes?