Posted on 02/14/2006 5:00:06 AM PST by Judith Anne
THE ARRIVAL OF avian flu in Africa means that the bird epidemic is officially out of control. None of the methods used against it so far -- mass vaccination of poultry flocks in China, mass bird slaughter across Southeast Asia -- has prevented wild birds from spreading the H5N1 virus across the globe, to Italy, Greece, Bulgaria and Azerbaijan, as well as Siberia and Indonesia. The flu has probably been killing birds in Africa for many months and will probably not be stopped: In poor countries with weak or nonexistent veterinary controls, where chickens are the only source of protein and no compensation for farmers for loss of their livestock is likely, it will be impossible to enforce either mass vaccinations or mass slaughter
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
"Please check my post 54 and let me know what you think...as far as I know, there is no reason an influenza virus must "trade" pathogenicity for transmissibility, yet that story is going around not only here but elsewhere on the internet. "
I already responded to it, he is wrong and many statisticians make the same error, especially if they have no background in epidemiology.
Kelly, as I understand it, some viruses become more, not less, virulent in new generations. As far as I have been able to determine, there is no way to tell which way it will jump.
Yes where I mentioned virulence is reduced in each generation of the virus lifecycle. Each generation can last in temporal terms many months a year a few weeks... This depends on many factors, such as which biological agent, the vector, transmission mechanisms, geographical factors, environmental factors, zoonotic specificity etc.
Kelly, I have to go. ((((((hugs)))))
I know you have a much broader knowledge base than I, but I disagree that a virus becomes less pathogenic or virulent with succeeding generations. I'm thinking of Marburg Angola here, and others.
Anyway, have a wonderful day. I'll be back tonight.
No no I think I didn't make my point clearly, this is not a general rule at all. As I say all biological agents are (in this case a virus) are different. In the case of influenza we may be tracking a particular variant and strain and see a progression form virulence to non virulence. As far as a pandemic is concerned this is not necessarily the end of the story, within the same or progressive seasons a new variant can and does emerge. This can higher virulence than it's now non virulent predecessor. So as you see it is simply in some cases a matter of classification.
I actually agree with your assessment most virus DO NOT exchange virulence for transmissability
Maybe I should start at the beginning, there are two main ways in which a flu pandemic can occur, the conditions vary in other words.
If you take the case of the previous flu pandemics say the 1957 and 68 pandemics we saw the standard pathogenesis I described where during the lifecycle in progressive generations a less virulent virus evolves. This is a result of optimizing, or adapting to a human host. In the case of this pandemic (1957/68) a recombination even had caused an avian strain to recombine with a human strain.
This was not the case with the 1918 pandemic where we now believe that the avian strain adapted without any introduction of the B or C strain genome. In other words it was a pure A strain variant (H1N1). In this case the virulence of the the virus has a different model and outcome the high virulence will remain as the virus is not attempting to adapt to a human host, it is a zoonotic strain. Hopefully this helps to explain how similar seeming virus can have totally different lifecycle and etiology.
The molecular signature in recent isolates bears out this thinking......
Since you and Judith are apparently well versed in this topic, what are you two doing to prepare for possibility of the h2h mutation, if anything? Any next steps or timelines you are keeping an eye out for?
"what are you two doing to prepare for possibility of the h2h mutation, if anything? Any next steps or timelines you are keeping an eye out for?"
For myself the following: Make sure you and your family have a trivalent flu vaccine not a monovalent lower efficacy lower specificity (cross immune benefit is everything) Vaccination is the single most important step you can take in preparedness, it is the foundation for any further action you take. get a supply of protein inhibitors (not tamiflu, increasingly more strains and variants are tamiflu resistant)take these at first sense that you are unwell, protein inhibitors are only effective during early onset if you are symptomatic it is probably too late. Stockpile symptomatic relief medication, this can save the life of those in high risk groups such as infant and elderly.
Make sure as a family you have a disaster plan: This should be the case for every US family IMO for severe storms, fire, earthquake, pandemics etc. You should have a stockpile of necessities including canned and dry food stuffs, water and fuel for lighting and heating if required or a back up generator, I know this seems strange for a pandemic discussion but bear with me on this.
Depending on the scope and dimensions of any given pandemic pay attention to CDC and FEMA bulletins. If they announce such a circumstance limit your outdoor travel as much as possible. Avoid public gatherings, remove your children from school ASAP, take a vacation or leave at work unless you fulfill an essential public service(this one is controversial as the government do not want you to stop working, because of projected simulations concerning fiscal damage to the economy). Increase and improve your basic hygiene standards at home, provide alcohol-based-handwash at sinks and bathrooms in your own home(the idea here is not so much to protect your own home but to increase this practice in all US homes during such a situation)this has an incremental benefit to the larger community. Unless you are suffering chronic symptoms UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES visit your doctor or clinical practice this is where 100% you will become infected. Please note almost all fatalities form influenza are the result of respiratory complications such as ARDS etc. If at all possible acquire respiratory equipment (this will not be easy or possible for most households) my daughter has chronic respiratory problems I have training and access to the equipment because of my clinical background so this is OK for us.
This is my strategy for weathering the storm please do not think this is anything more than a personal opinion
yes quite right see my points above on the factors that govern influenza pandemics
"get a supply of protein inhibitors (not tamiflu, increasingly more strains and variants are tamiflu resistant)take these at first sense that you are unwell, protein inhibitors are only effective during early onset if you are symptomatic it is probably too late. "
Where would I get them? Any you would recommend? I heard about the resistance to Tamiflu in Vietnam. Heck, you cannot even get Tamiflu in this country it seems. Personally, I thought of getting NaCl solutions and running IV's to keep the infected hydrated and treating with other relief meds as you mentioned.
What kind of time period are you stocking supplies for? Most seem to be ready for a few weeks, maybe a month. Only a few seem to be prepared beyond that.
"Where would I get them?
You can get them from your doctor or pharmacist Any you would recommend? "
Rimantadine and amantadine are both effective against avian influenza known as Influenza type A, however zanamivir or by its brand name relenza is effective against a recombinant B strain so this is important when deciding which to opt for. keep an eye on the specicifc about any pandemic announcements follow the details about the molecular specifics concerning the emergent H5N1 pandemic variant will it be a pure avian or recombined variant? which protein inhibitor you opt for will be determined by this.
"What kind of time period are you stocking supplies for?"
My family has 4-6 months supplies of food in our estimates. We have independent bottled water supplies of around 2 months. Whatever is practical for you.
bumping potentially useful information!
By family tradition we've stocked for three months. We always have.
We live in a very rural area, also. We're fine for whatever happens.
Kelly, just a note to say you and your dear ones are always in our prayers. God bless and keep you all. It was so good to post with you this am, I've missed our discussions. Thanks for all the information, it was well written and easy to understand.
Again, God bless. See you soon again on the threads, I hope.
Wanted to throw something out as food for thought. If H5N1 mutates to h2h, and maintains a 50% mortality rate or greater, then consider the current population of the world, which, according to the census is:
02/01/06 6,494,899,830
That could potentially mean 3,247,449,915 could die if the entire world were infected. Now, what do you think are reasonable estimates, if that is unreasonable? In the 1918 pandemic, at least 40mil people died worldwide. Anyone seen a consensus on estimates?
Thanks for the well wishes and prayers, you are in ours too :-)
I also enjoyed posting with you again, it's been too long, as you can imagine it's a busy time at the moment with several field trips away from my family. I will be around and posting as I am away from work for a weeks leave (we are visiting Tahoe and renting an RV- I have mobile networking :-).
See you soon FRiend and God Bless
This mean the terrorists can just kick back and enjoy the sight?
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