Right-winger set to smash the mould in Canada

UK Telegraph ^ | Jan. 23, 3006 | Francis Harris

[FairOpinion]

An unashamedly Right-wing politician is poised to shatter decades of middle-ground consensus in Canada's general election today.

The emergence of Conservative leader Stephen Harper has panicked opponents and cheered those demanding a radical change of direction for a country they describe as vanquished by the adherents of political correctness.

Paul Martin, the prime minister, warned of a shift to the far Right Paul Martin, the Liberal prime minister, has whipped up voters' fears in the final days of campaigning, claiming that Mr Harper would overturn the newly-enshrined right of homosexual marriage and cosy up to President George W Bush, who most Canadians dislike.

He even claimed that the Tories would attack abortion rights, which the party denies.

"We have a party that wants to take this country to the far, far Right of the US conservative movement," Mr Martin warned.

But despite days of such allegations, opinion polls showed the Conservatives steady at about 10 per cent ahead of the Liberals.

Such a result would mark the first Conservative victory for almost 20 years, although it might not be enough to deliver a majority in the 308-member House of Commons.

The Conservative campaign has been marked by a moderate election programme based on tax cuts, a crackdown on crime, increased defence spending and devolution of power to the provinces.

Mr Harper, 46, an economist, has been very careful not to threaten too much change. But most who have watched him during 20 years in politics say he is far from the typical Canadian consensus-seeking mould that has typified leaders of both Left and Right for decades.

According to his biographer, William Johnson, the country has never had a leader like him in the 139 years since Britain handed over power.

The biography, Stephen Harper and the future of Canada, describes him as a brilliant conviction politician who admired the no-nonsense styles of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan.

An introverted policy wonk, he distrusts the Canadian political elite and has a taste for necessary but unpopular policies. Many Canadians, including some on his own side, say this mix will make the sparks fly if he becomes prime minister.

Unlike almost all recent Canadian premiers, he did not originate in the Francophone heartland of Quebec.

A fluent French-speaker who has promised to leave Quebec's controversial language laws alone, he is unashamedly English by culture, temperament and origin.

In the run-up to war in Iraq, Mr Harper gave voice to the minority who were uneasy that Canada's old allies in America, Britain and Australia were about to engage in a conflict without Canadian units at their side.

On the day war broke out, he berated Canada's Liberal government for its "insecure anti-Americanism".

He no longer insists on sending troops to Iraq but few doubt that when he spoke to the House of Commons that day, MPs saw into the heart of the real Stephen Harper.

[FairOpinion]

Some interesting and very hopeful information about the conservative candidate, Stephen Harper. I do hope he wins, it's going to be a major change for Canada and our relationship with them.

[bahblahbah]

"
An unashamedly Right-wing politician is poised to shatter decades of middle-ground consensus in Canada's general election today. "

Liberals == middle ground consensus?

[Mike Darancette]

decades of middle-ground consensus in Canada's

There sure doesn't seem to be much "middle" in the Grits that I have been seeing leading Canada.

[conservative in nyc]

Latest Canadian poll roundup. I still don't have new Ipsos Reid regional data:

Canada	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Dates	MOE (+/-)
Final SES/CPAC	36.4%	30.1%	17.4%	10.6%	5.6%	Jan 20-22	3.1%
Final  Ipsos Reid/Global	38%	27%	19%	12%	4% (Other)	Jan 18-22(?)	(?)
Latest Ekos	37.1%	26.9%	19.5%	11.5%	4.6%	Jan 18-20	2.0%
Final Strategic Counsel/CTV	37%	27%	19%	11%	6%	Jan 19, 21-22	2.0%
Latest Leger	38%	29%	17%	11%	-	Jan 12-17	2.1%
Latest Decima	37%	27%	18%	11%	-	Jan 12-15	3.1%
University of B.C. Elections Market	38.8%	28.8%	17.9%	11.5%	6.4% (Other)	Jan 22 10:50PM  EST	-
Actual 2004	29.6%	36.7%	15.7%	12.4%	4.3%	June 28	-
Final SES 2004	30%	34%	20%	12%	4%	June 20-24	< 4.1%
Final Ipsos Reid 2004	31%	32%	17%	12%	6%	Released June 25	UNK
Final Ekos 2004	31.8%	32.6%	19.0%	11.2%	4.9%	June 21-24	1.4%

Canada - Seat Projections	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Other	Too Close	Date/Time
Final Ipsos Reid/Global	150	64	36	58	0	-	Jan 22
University of B.C. Elections Market	129	92	31	55	1	-	Jan 22 11PM EST
Final democraticSPACE	128	94	29	56	1	-	Jan 22
Election Prediction Project	118	99	28	58	1	4	Jan 22 4:21PM EST
At Dissolution	98	133	18	53	4	-	December 2005
Actual 2004	99	135	19	54	1	-	June 28
Election Prediction Project 2004	105	121	29	52	1	-	June 24 12 Noon

Ontario	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Dates	MOE (+/-)
Final SES/CPAC	36%	38%	20%	-	6%	Jan 20-22	5.1%
Latest Ipsos Reid/ Global	38%	34%	21%	-	5%	Jan 17-19	3.5%
Latest Ekos	35.8%	33.4%	24.3%	-	6.3%	Jan 18-20	3.2%
Final Strategic Counsel/CTV	37%	36%	22%	-	6%	Jan 19, 21-22	3.2%
Latest Leger	39%	37%	19%	-	-	Jan 12-17	UNK
Latest Decima	36%	39%	18%	-	-	Jan 12-15	UNK
Actual 2004	31.5%	44.7%	18.1%	0.0%	4.4%	June 28	-
Final SES 2004	32%	39%	25%	1%	4%	June 20-24	5.0%
Final Ipsos Reid 2004	34%	38%	20%	-	6%	Released June 25	UNK
Final Ekos 2004	35%	38%	21%	-	5%	June 21-24	UNK

Quebec	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Dates	MOE (+/-)
Final SES/CPAC	27%	19%	8%	42%	3%	Jan 20-22	6.2%
Latest Ipsos Reid/Global	27%	14%	9%	46%	3%	Jan 17-19	4.5%
Latest Ekos	24.5%	12.7%	7.9%	50.2%	3.4%	Jan 18-20	3.9%
Final Strategic Counsel/CTV	25%	14%	7%	48%	6%	Jan 19, 21-22	4.0%
Latest Leger	26%	20%	8%	42%	-	Jan 12-17	UNK
Latest Decima	25%	14%	11%	45%	-	Jan 12-15	UNK
Actual 2004	8.8%	33.9%	4.6%	48.9%	3.2%	June 28	-
Final SES 2004	11%	28%	7%	51%	3%	June 20-24	5.9%
Final Ipsos Reid 2004	9%	33%	5%	48%	5%	Released June 25	UNK
Final Ekos 2004	11%	28%	7%	51%	3%	June 21-24	UNK
Final Leger 2004	11%	33%	4%	48%	-	Released June 27	UNK

Atlantic Canada	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Dates	MOE (+/-)
Final SES/CPAC	29%	44%	22%	-	5%	Jan 20-22	11.0%
Latest Ipsos Reid/Global	39%	37%	22%	-	2%	Jan 17-19	8.0%
Latest Ekos	35.0%	39.9%	24.5%	-	0.6%	Jan 16-19	6.6%
Final Strategic Counsel/CTV	36%	34%	24%	-	5%	Jan 17-22	6.0%
Latest Leger	38%	38%	22%	-	2%	Jan 12-17	UNK
Omnifacts Bristol/HCH	37%	45%	16%	-	2% (Other)	Jan 10-12	2.5%
Actual 2004	30.0%	43.8%	22.6%	0.0%	3.0%	June 28	-
Final SES 2004	24%	45%	25%	2%	4%	June 20-24	8.6%
Final Ipsos Reid 2004	23%	44%	26%	-	7%	Released June 25	UNK
Final Ekos 2004	33%	39%	28%	-	0%	June 21-24	UNK

Prairies	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Dates	MOE (+/-)
Final SES/CPAC	47%	25%	23%	-	5%	Jan 18-22	8.5%
Latest Ipsos Reid/Global	47%	26%	23%	-	2%	Jan 17-19	8.5%
Latest Ekos	44.0%	27.8%	24.0%	-	3.8%	Jan 16-19	6.6%
Final Strategic Counsel/CTV	47%	21%	25%	-	7%	Jan 17-22	6.5%
Latest Leger	42%	30%	21%	-	5%	Jan 12-17	UNK
Actual 2004	40.4%	30.3%	23.4%	0%	2.7%	June 28	-
Final SES 2004	39%	34%	24%	1%	2%	June 20-24	8.5%
Final Ipsos Reid 2004	36%	32%	25%	-	5%	Released June 25	UNK
Final Ekos 2004	37%	29%	30%	-	5%	June 21-24	UNK

Alberta	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Dates	MOE (+/-)
Final SES/CPAC	55%	18%	19%	-	7%	Jan 18-22	7.5%
Last Ipsos Reid/Global	64%	13%	8%	-	12%	Jan 17-19	7.1%
Latest Ekos	64.5%	14.3%	14.0%	-	6.8%	Jan 16-19	5.8%
Final Strategic Counsel/CTV	69%	15%	8%	-	8%	Jan 17-22	6.0%
Latest Leger	61%	19%	12%	-	6%	Jan 12-17	UNK
Actual 2004	61.7%	22.0%	9.5%	0.0%	6.1%	June 28	-
Final SES 2004	62%	23%	13%	-	2%	June 20-24	8.3%
Final Ipsos Reid 2004	59%	20%	11%	-	6%	Released June 25	UNK
Final Ekos 2004	58%	23%	12%	-	7%	June 21-24	UNK

B.C.	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Dates	MOE (+/-)
Latest SES/CPAC	34%	36%	23%	-	7%	Jan 18-22	6.3%
Lateat Ipsos Reid/Global	35%	27%	29%	-	7%	Jan 17-19	5.9%
Latest Ekos	36.0%	30.1%	28.9%	-	4.9%	Jan 16-19	4.9%
Final Strategic Counsel/CTV	32%	31%	32%	-	6%	Jan 19, 21-22	5.4%
Latest Leger	40%	26%	26%	-	7%	Jan 12-17	UNK
Actual 2004	36.3%	28.6%	26.6%	0.0%	6.3%	June 28	-
Final SES 2004	38%	28%	28%	-	6%	June 20-24	7.2%
Final Ipsos Reid 2004	44%	24%	22%	-	8%	Released June 25	UNK
Final Ekos 2004	34%	30%	27%	-	7%	June 21-24	UNK

[FairOpinion]

Thanks for all the info!

[conservative in nyc]

See post 6. I've asked the mods to delete post 3, since I inadvertently mixed up the 2004 seat data.

[goldstategop]

Conservatism in Canada will have to be built from the ground up. Mark Steyn has written a foreword to a brilliant new book by two of Canada's coolest young conservatives, Tasha Kheirridin and Adam Daifallah. As can be expected, its titled Rescuing Canada's Right: Blueprint For A Conservative Revolution. It doesn't get any more provocative than that in a country renowed for mindless statism. The two authors are small "c" conservatives: lower taxes, less government involvement in the affairs of society and greater personal freedom. Let's hope Harper takes more than baby steps in leading Canada away from Trudeaupia.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[FairOpinion]

You should care who wins, because if the Canadian leadership becomes more conservative, we can count on their support more. Australia and England may not be as strong allies if they had different leaders.

Look at Spain, we went from strong support from them, to total opposition, because a socilist replaced the guy who was our strong supporter.

[goldstategop]

As a Canadian transplant, I don't think Canada's future is completely bleak. At the moment, there are few conservatives east of Manitoba. That's what needs to be changed up North.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[DogBarkTree]

WOW! I knew there were Canadians not happy with the status quo but this is indeed surprising. Im feeling a bit regretful for the many anti Cannuck comments Ive been making. Sorry.

[cookcounty]

I thought the elections were suppsed to be today. Next week, maybe?

[oolatec]

Martin will pull through. Just you all wait and see.

[RTINSC]

It would be nice to be able to visit Canada without having to wear flowers in my hair..

[goldstategop]

The election is tomorrow. I kind of like the image of Martin and his colleagues going to the clink in handcuffs. It couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch of crooks.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[goldstategop]

Ayuh. The Liberal Party Has Won Yesterday, Today and Forever. Get used to Big Brother in Canada.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[Ticonderoga34]

Sounds to me like our friends up North have had enough of socialism.

[FairOpinion]

"Sounds to me like our friends up North have had enough of socialism"


===

People who lived under socialism long enough get tired of it, look at E.Europe and the Soviet Union, and Candad now.

But unfortunately in the mean time a lot of Latin American countries are turning socialist.

The pendulum swings to the left (Bolivia)

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1563051/posts

[Donald Rumsfeld Fan]

The biography, Stephen Harper and the future of Canada, describes him as a brilliant conviction politician who admired the no-nonsense styles of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan.

.

..together they told liberals to stick it where the sun don't shine.... and won the cold war