[oolatec]

Martin will pull through. Just you all wait and see.

[goldstategop]

Ayuh. The Liberal Party Has Won Yesterday, Today and Forever. Get used to Big Brother in Canada.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[kanawa]

Martin will pull through. Just you all wait and see.

Ten bucks to FR says he doesn't.

[conservative in nyc]

Martin will pull through. Just you all wait and see.

Let me give you 5 reasons this will not happen this time:

1) The 2004 election polling data was days old by election day. Most polls didn't reflect the last-minute swing to the Liberals. This time, the SES, Ipsos and Strategic Counsel polls were updated through the day before election day.

2) In 2004, ALL of the polls in the week before the election showed the Tories behind or tied. In 2006, ALL of the polls for the past two weeks have shown the Tories AHEAD.

3) In 2004, many major Canadian newspapers endorsed the Liberals. In 2006, most of those papers endorsed the Conservatives.

4) In 2004, Election Prediction Project correctly forecasted a slight Liberal win in ridings. Today, Election Prediction Project is forecasting a slight Conservative win in ridings.

5) The University of BC Election Market wasn't up and running at the time of the 2004 election, since it was summer term. Today, the UBC Election Market forecasts a Tory victory. This market has been more accurate than most opinion polls in forecasting election results.

The Tories will receive the most votes in the 2004 election, due to increased Quebec support. The only remaining question is how much Ontario follows. I'm predicting a Conservative minority government, with the Tories taking 120-125 seats.

[moose2004]

Martin will lose because of the corruption scandals engulfing his party, not because of any new popularity of conservatives like Harper.