Posted on 01/21/2006 7:54:46 PM PST by nickcarraway
Auto makers and retail giants are in the driver's seat of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID), an industry expected to experience "explosive growth" over the next five years, according to analysts.
Used to track everything from Pepsi to people, 33 billion radio tags will be produced by 2010. Only 1.5 billion of the tracking devices were made last year.
Supply chain management, tracking items from the warehouse to store shelves, will become the largest segment of RFID, according to In-Stat, an Arizona-based research firm.
"This segment will account for the largest number of tags and labels from 2005 through 2010," said analyst Allen Nogee in a statement. Retail giant Wal-Mart is the leader in this area, requiring its top suppliers to use RFID, according to the analyst.
Pharmaceutical companies, plagued by counterfeit drugs, may be the next market to adopt the ID tags, according to Nogee.
While RFID could enjoy a 30-fold growth rate over the next half-decade, unsettled issues could trip any rapid rise. The spread of RFID depends on the cost of the tracking devices to drop. Additional worries are privacy concerns and delays caused by court challenges.
"RFID tags now cost about 20 cents per tag," Nogee told internetnews.com. The "magic number" RFID companies want to reach is five cents. While some advances in manufacturing radio tags are lowering costs, higher volume is key. "Buying a billion is cheaper than a million," said Nogee.
Privacy concerns surround RFID tags. Although Gillette had ordered a billion tags for shavers, and sneaker makers were planning to use radio tags to prevent black market sales, "you won't find any consumer products with RFID," said Nogee. "A lot of privacy backlash" awaits retailers considering RFID."
Privacy issues force RFID proponents to take a different path. "RFID is going in the back door," according to the analyst. Could privacy worries derail any explosive growth predicted for RFID? "Absolutely," said Nogee.
Rather than the store shelf, RFID is used in the back room, and instead of people, radio ID tags now track things. "If Wal-Mart wants to tag their cartons, I don't think you'll see many privacy advocates bothered by that," Nogee said.
Although the retail giant handles 8 percent of all cartons worldwide, others must become involved to keep RFID growing.
Animals are being "chipped" to help owners locate their pets. Passports will contain RFID tags for travelers. The University of Arizona is considering using radio tags to stem the tide of stolen bicycles. Keys may be another use for RFID.
"The majority of automobile keys contain RFID chips to make sure the bad guys don't steal your car," according to the analyst. "I use an RFID key to get into my house. My wife can just hold her purse up to the reader and she's in. No more fumbling for keys."
I would love for RFID to replace licence plates on cars - specifically, the front plate. God they are ugly!
This anal-ist is conveniently ignoring the issues involved with jumping from 20 cent tags down to 5 cent. There has been much made of using ink jet or other forms of digital printing technology to get the costs down but we are years out from that becoming a reality.
Gotta love those hockey stick curve forecasts where things go up at 30 degree angles three years out from the start of the forecast period.
I'd pay real money to RFID my law files. No longer would staffers be tearing through the offices looking for the Jones Divorce File from three years ago.
Your statement 100% correct, in fact it is the very basis of the peaks and troughs of our civilization (we are presently in a trough, in my opinion).
"we need to go back to good ol' fashioned poverty and inefficiency....."
Your "solution" a very good one in some ways, although I know you meant it sarcastically.
RFID Jammers on eBay may see explosive growth. Along with Faraday cage steel fiber underwear.
That has to be a standard Visio object. The marketing clowns depend on it. Just plant the curve, label the axes and stuff it into your PowerPoint slides.
The only thing funnier is when the Microsoft Project slingers whip out the PERT and GANNT charts and predict the future in an authoritative voice. Ass clowns in pinstripes who believe their own BS. Most of them don't even bother to talk to the people doing the real work.
RFID devices are powered by an interaction with a magnetic field. They have a limited range between 12 inches and 10 feet. If all your files were tagged with RFID, there would be a deafening cacaphony of RFID replies. They aren't particularly directional either. You would be lucky to scan all your file cabinets and narrow down to the one that contains what you are seeking.
FORT WORTH, Texas -- Texans who own cars, trucks or SUVs may get a new high tech sticker on their car if one state legislator has his way. Republican representative Larry Phillips of Sherman wants Texas drivers to get an inspection sticker that is embedded with a microchip. The chip would house information about the owner's vehicle, registration and insurance coverage. There is no word if the proposal will make it out of committee.
I've been to talks discussing 3rd generation and beyond tags. They may be below a nickle sooner than you think.
RFID ping!
GPS lite
RFID integrated paper documents? Let's hope some wise criminals would not tear of the RFID tag from the document. However, nice idea. I buy it.
Alien Technologies is a non-publicly traded company. If RFID does face "explosive growth" are there any publicly traded stocks that would be relatively pure plays in that product area?
I'm still waiting for the paperless office!
look up symbol:
RFIL
lol
Slippery slope argument.
The progress of an invention:
Step One - It goes against nature and God's law.
Step Two - We must outlaw it.
Step Three - How did we live without it?
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