Israel readies forces for strike on nuclear Iran

The Sunday Times ^ | December 11, 2005 | Uzi Mahnaimi, Tel Aviv, and Sarah Baxter, Washington

[rhainw]

ISRAEL’S armed forces have been ordered by Ariel Sharon, the prime minister, to be ready by the end of March for possible strikes on secret uranium enrichment sites in Iran, military sources have revealed. The order came after Israeli intelligence warned the government that Iran was operating enrichment facilities, believed to be small and concealed in civilian locations.

Iran’s stand-off with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over nuclear inspections and aggressive rhetoric from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, who said last week that Israel should be moved to Europe, are causing mounting concern.

The crisis is set to come to a head in early March, when Mohamed El-Baradei, the head of the IAEA, will present his next report on Iran. El-Baradei, who received the Nobel peace prize yesterday, warned that the world was “losing patience” with Iran.

A senior White House source said the threat of a nuclear Iran was moving to the top of the international agenda and the issue now was: “What next?” That question would have to be answered in the next few months, he said.

Defence sources in Israel believe the end of March to be the “point of no return” after which Iran will have the technical expertise to enrich uranium in sufficient quantities to build a nuclear warhead in two to four years.

“Israel — and not only Israel — cannot accept a nuclear Iran,” Sharon warned recently. “We have the ability to deal with this and we’re making all the necessary preparations to be ready for such a situation.”

The order to prepare for a possible attack went through the Israeli defence ministry to the chief of staff. Sources inside special forces command confirmed that “G” readiness — the highest stage — for an operation was announced last week.

Gholamreza Aghazadeah, head of the Atomic Organisation of Iran, warned yesterday that his country would produce nuclear fuel. “There is no doubt that we have to carry out uranium enrichment,” he said.

He promised it would not be done during forthcoming talks with European negotiators. But although Iran insists it wants only nuclear energy, Israeli intelligence has concluded it is deceiving the world and has no intention of giving up what it believes is its right to develop nuclear weapons.

A “massive” Israeli intelligence operation has been underway since Iran was designated the “top priority for 2005”, according to security sources.

Cross-border operations and signal intelligence from a base established by the Israelis in northern Iraq are said to have identified a number of Iranian uranium enrichment sites unknown to the the IAEA.

Since Israel destroyed the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq in 1981, “it has been understood that the lesson is, don’t have one site, have 50 sites”, a White House source said.

If a military operation is approved, Israel will use air and ground forces against several nuclear targets in the hope of stalling Tehran’s nuclear programme for years, according to Israeli military sources.

It is believed Israel would call on its top special forces brigade, Unit 262 — the equivalent of the SAS — and the F-15I strategic 69 Squadron, which can strike Iran and return to Israel without refuelling.

[TheDon]

2006 is shaping up to be a most interesting year.

[Iris7]

Remember that the bombing DID NOT begin in five minutes. Nonetheless the cold war was won. Politics are ("politics" is plural not singular) all about pecking order, social hierarchies, who commands and who obeys. So is war. War and politics are different words for the same thing. One can say war is bloodier and more ruthless than politics, but then one would have to admit that because the Ukraine famine in the 1930's and the GULAG killed perhaps 70-100 million people then the real killer is not war but politics. Another interesting fact is that the Chinese have always ruled through famine and punitive expeditions induced for political reasons. Famine and massacre are not war, more like "giving them an offer they can't refuse".

As an example remember how you feel when preparing for April 15th.

I attempt to discuss this in my #180.

[MARTIAL MONK]

This is saber rattling. It has a purpose in and of itself. It is designed to influence the current political balance and prevent trends extant from congealing into war. Since it defines causus belli clearly, it itcreases the liklihood of war but it also gives all parties an opportunity to avoid use of force. It provides focus.

[Iris7]

Indeed it is.

Saber rattling is meaningless without the saber, shall we say. To work there has to be a real threat of war.

As far as Israel and Sharon are concerned I find my reaction to Sharon's gambit curiosity about the ways and means he intends to employ to carry out his threat if and perhaps when he must. Logistics particularly.

Of course Sharon is talking about using nuclear weapons because the Iranian installations are many, large, and reasonably well defended.

Martial Monk, eh? Always had a weak spot for the Templars and Hospitalers myself. By the way, and of course, those fellows were overwhelmingly French.

[WoofDog123]

"Cross-border operations and signal intelligence from a base established by the Israelis in northern Iraq are said to have identified a number of Iranian uranium enrichment sites unknown to the the IAEA. "

A base in Norther iraq? if true, i am amaze3d it hasn't been mentioned elsewhere.

[familyop]

The piece is published by the timesonline.co.uk. Is it western Europe's wishful thinking, or will Israel really do Europe's dirty work again?

New Iran missiles can reach London
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1227123/posts

[MARTIAL MONK]

I try to imagine how I would handle this if I were smarter than I am. Do we have a clue in the success of Israel's decapitation of the leadership of Hamas? Nuclear would add a dimension with implications that I can barely grasp. It has been off the table except for cases of national survival since Nagasaki. We lost two wars rather than use it. For the Jews to use it would define their resolve but it would also open an agonizing introspection. Are they willing to do that at this time?

I would guess that a more likely scenerio would be massive conventional destruction of what can be located and destroyed and a simultaneous attack on the government of Iran. Ignore the military but destroy the government as completely and deeply as possible. Go after the brain rather than the muscle. Invite them to reconstitute and provide more targets. A collapsed and chaotic country may not be as willing or able to pursue the destruction of Israel.

[cowdog77]

"It'll be WWIII, I doubt have any doubt in my mind."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
It will lead to Armaggedon....I don't have any doubt in my mind.

[Iris7]

I have thought about the same possibilities you describe and agree on the "agonizing introspection" part.

The reason I brought up the logistics of executing Sharon's threat is that the ground forces and air sorties required are large using the decapitation gambit. I lean towards the idea that the Israelis are in the Kurdish zone because Iran's northwest is even more Kurd than is northeastern Iraq. This will apply great pressure to Turkey to say the very least. Perhaps the Turks will talk turkey, Eh? Heh, heh.

An Israeli military presence of some size, a few divisions, and a pair of modern air force bases (promised to the Kurds after Iran is dealt with), good ground logistical support through the Sunni controlled south of Iraq (hard to accomplish), a major human intelligence operation into Iran, etc., leading up to serious violence in time -

Of course I am an absolute neophyte in this stuff compared to Ariel Sharon. Sharon is truly formidable.

You Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security types reading this thread are really in a pickle. I wonder if you wonder if you can chew what you have bitten off. Actually, the answer is no, you can't. Tough luck, lads.

[Ban Draoi Marbh Draoi]

And not just pray.

Read Ezekiel 38, 39 and Zechariah 12-14 and the book of Revelation.

The greatest ass-kicking of all time.

[Tommyjo]

There are no S-300 systems in Iran or the Gulf region. It does not appear on any threat list for Coalition forces stationed there. The Russians will probably supply the S-300 sytstem in the future. The SA-15 deal in my opinion was just the tester and the deal for S-300s will probably follow. The Russians will probably lease them to Iran and station them around nuclear facilities that have Russian personell in them.

[Prophet in the wilderness]

" Syria is in this up to their eyeballs. " ...... they always have, even in the Old Testament.

[Left2Right]

Makes sense to me too. Israel hits them hard, Iran retaliates by attacking US ships in the Persian Gulf, US responds in self-defense with possible British support in the south and Kurd uprisings in the north.

UN will still be upset, but irrelevant. Russia & China will not be amused. MSM & Dems go nuts.

[hershey]

Perhaps the date is off, and they're ready right now.

[hershey]

I agree.

[Prophet in the wilderness]

God Bless Israel

[ncountylee]

Do you work for Debka?

Now why would you say that to someone who expressed an on thread opinion?

Do you have an agenda?

[Malesherbes]

The MSM keeps saying that the stuff is dispersed and buried deep. I hope both Israel (and we) know where it is. Whatever happens, Israel (and Bush) will be blamed internationally; so we might as well get it over with before it is too late.

[CGVet58]

This will be Sharon's defining moment; no matter the politics, the man is and always will be a soldier. His mission is to defend his country, and my prayers are with him and Israel.

These vermin think nothing of eradicating innocent women and children. The current president of Iran has avowed that even if Israel retaliates and kills 30 million muslims, it would still be worth it because all the Jews would then be wiped out. Words such as these betray madness of the sort that once inhabited the likes of Hitler, Stalin & Mao.

Now more than ever, we need a modern day Gideon and three hundred brave warriors blessed by God to face and destroy this filth -- and we should assist, the devil be damned with international consequences! It's time we took the genie that Carter let out of the bottle back in the 70's and forcefully choked it back down into whatever cesspool it first crawled out from.

Never forget 1983... 241 Marines silently stand guard upon the streets of heaven because of the mullahs; it's high time that outstanding account was put paid to.

CGVet58

[omega4179]

I thought it was decided Israels best planes can barely even reach the sites.