One of the many reasons that I've been telling everyone in my social circles to buy oil stocks over the past 18 months has been how Russia is playing geopolitics.
To understand what's going on, you've got to look at Russia's position and Putin's background as a spook (and Putin's next job as Russian oil Czar, he's about to retire as Russia's President, after all).
In 1997, Russia defaulted on its sovereign debt. That was a big deal. Russia, an oil-exporting nation, did not handle low oil prices well.
Besides its Iraqi shenanigans, Russia has since grasped that there are ways to push up oil. In spades, one such way is to get its competition bombed into non-production.
Iraq's oil-for-food didn't stray far from that plan, and now Russia is sending tempting bait into Iran that will either get Iran blockaded by the world (with Russia agreeing to not veto said blockade at the UN only..."reluctantly") or bombed directly (perhaps both).
To this end, nuclear power plant aid, nuclear weapons aid, and the sales of Billions of Dollars worth of military hardware (e.g. anti-aircraft missiles, anti-missile systems, etc.) to Iran simply serves to fatten up the pig before the slaughter (i.e. makes Iran an ever more tempting target for Israel/U.S. military attention).
A naval blockade of Iran would crush Iran's economy and destabilize their local politics, but Russia benefits from this because those things make oil more dear.
You see, Iran is a *competitor* to Russia, as Iran, like Russia, is an oil exporter.
Moreover, Iran is backing Islamic fanatics in Chechnya who have carried out suicide attacks against Russian children in Beslan, theatres, and apartment buildings in Moscow.
To the casual eye, Putin's "aid" to Iran makes no sense because Iran is quite literally Russia's economic and strategic enemy.
But for a spook like Putin, this "aid" is his ticket to get a military that *can* project force (e.g. Israel and/or the U.S.) into that region...to destroy a Russian oil competitor and Chechnyan terrorist supporter (e.g. Iran).
In short, Putin is baiting Iran such that someone like the U.S. or Israel will do his dirty work for him...and Putin won't be blamed when his competitor is smashed.
In fact, Putin may even win *concessions* from the U.S. in exchange for Russia's non-veto at the UN, or other such "favor." And Putin, being the shrewd spook, could stand even to veto a blockade or call for war against Iran...knowing that the U.S. and/or Israel must attack Iran, anyway.
Make no mistake that Putin wants Iran to give Chechnyan terrorists a nuke that goes off in Moscow. That's ludicrous beyond belief.
So Putin knows that Iran isn't going to be permitted to proliferate nukes...something, at some level, is going to be done to Iran to head off the destabilization that a nuclear Ayatollah would cause.
And Putin is supremely confident that the U.S. and/or Israel will take said action.
Moreover, whatever action is taken, be it a blockade of Iran or an invasion or a massive bombing or whatever, the price of oil goes up...benefiting Russia...one of the world's fastest growing oil exporters.
Basically, Putin is gaming everyone. The Iranians are accepting his "gifts" of technology (in realty, those "gifts" are bait for their own demise). The U.S. and/or Israel will prevent Iran from proliferating nukes (so Moscow won't go up in Chechnyan smoke)...
...And the price of oil goes up, as Iranian oil is about to be off of the market for a while one way or another.
You've seen President Bush take down the Taliban, jail Saddam Hussein, and defeat Democrats in multiple elections. You've seen Chirac forge Niger WMD documents and campaign against an Iraq War.
And now you get to see Putin play President Spook, Czar of oil.
For all who suffered through the low-brow geopolitics of the eight long Clinton years, your adrenaline fix from the new crop of leaders has only just begun.
