Posted on 11/29/2005 7:16:12 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
I was looking for snow.
...Epsilon regains hurricane strength...but forecast to weaken...
at 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 34.3 north...longitude 39.2 west or about 725 miles...1170 km...west-southwest of the Azores.
Epsilon is moving toward the east near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph...140 km/hr...with higher gusts. A gradual weakening should begin later today.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb...28.91 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...34.3 N... 39.2 W. Movement toward...east near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 85 mph. Minimum central pressure... 979 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.
Forecaster Avila
$$
after a slight weakening overnight...morning satellite images indicate that Epsilon has restrengthened. The eye has become more symmetric and the ring of convection is stronger than yesterday. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are 4.5 on the Dvorak scale and on this basis...the initial intensity is increased to 75 knots. There are no clear reasons...and I am not going to make one up...to explain the recent strengthening of Epsilon and I am just describing the facts. However...I still have to make an intensity forecast and the best bet at this time is to predict weakening due to cold water ...High shear and dry air.
Epsilon is moving eastward at 10 knots...running ahead of a strong mid-latitude trough. But soon...according to the global models...the cyclone will be trapped south of a developing ridge which eventually force Epsilon southward and then southwestward. There is fairly good guidance agreement in showing this motion. Although Epsilon will encounter warmer waters once it moves toward the southwest. However...the upper level winds are expected to be highly unfavorable and Epsilon will likely become a remnant low. I heard that before about Epsilon...haven't you?
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 04/1500z 34.3n 39.2w 75 kt 12hr VT 05/0000z 34.3n 37.2w 60 kt 24hr VT 05/1200z 34.0n 35.0w 50 kt 36hr VT 06/0000z 33.5n 33.5w 40 kt...extratropical 48hr VT 06/1200z 32.0n 33.5w 30 kt...remnant low 72hr VT 07/1200z 29.0n 36.0w 25 kt...remnant low 96hr VT 08/1200z 25.5n 39.0w 25 kt...remnant low 120hr VT 09/1200z 21.5n 44.0w 25 kt...remnant low
$$
Avila wanted to be home by now :-)
The little hurricane that could...
If this thing heads back to the gulf, it could be one heck of a winter storm - a real blizicane
I don't know the name of it but I was watching some movie tonight about a "blizicane". Of course it was blamed on global warming.
Are you guys keeping an eye on Epsilon? I haven't seen any new threads. I just checked the Weather Underground 5 Day forecast track and it looks like it's swinging around for another try. Any ideas on what will happen if it gets caught up in the normal hurricane track across the Atlantic from Africa?
yippee... Just what we need here in NY; more snow. It could be nasty because the Atlantic is so warm and the Arctic sure is cold enough right now. Winter has set in well, here.
I guess you are. My mistake; I just saw how old the thread is and didn't check for the latest postings.
...Hurricane Epsilon refuses to weaken...future intensity uncertain...
At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 33.6 north...longitude 35.1 west or about 545 miles... 880 km...west-southwest of the Azores.
Epsilon is moving toward the east-southeast near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A gradual decrease in forward speed is expected later today and a turn toward the southwest is likely in a day or two.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher gusts. A gradual weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb...29.00 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...33.6 N... 35.1 W. Movement toward...east-southeast near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 982 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.
Forecaster Avila
$$
satellite presentation has not changed significantly since yesterday. The amount of deep convection in the eyewall has continued to fluctuate and it is currently surrounding the large eye again. Objective T-numbers for the past 3 hours have been oscillating around 4.5 suggesting winds of 75 knots but the subjective numbers are 4.0 on the Dvorak scale or 65 knots. Initial intensity is set in between at 70 knots. Epsilon has ignored the cold SSTs as well as the strong upper-level westerlies and has maintained hurricane strength. I am am not going to speculate any more on the future intensity of Epsilon and will just follow SHIPS and GFDL which are the best guidance available. SHIPS model gradually weakens the cyclone and the GFDL keeps it as a hurricane for nearly 3 days. The official intensity forecast is then a compromise between these two models. Both of the models either weaken or dissipate Epsilon beyond 3 days and so the the official forecast.
Epsilon is moving toward east-southeast or 105 degrees at 7 knots. There has been no change in the steering currents and global models insist on developing a mid-level high to the north and a cut off low to the southeast of Epsilon. This pattern should force Epsilon on a southwesterly track in day or so. By then...Epsilon is expected to be a weakening tropical cyclone or a remnant low.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 05/1500z 33.6n 35.1w 70 kt 12hr VT 06/0000z 33.3n 34.0w 65 kt 24hr VT 06/1200z 32.0n 34.0w 55 kt 36hr VT 07/0000z 30.5n 35.5w 45 kt 48hr VT 07/1200z 29.0n 37.0w 30 kt 72hr VT 08/1200z 26.0n 40.0w 25 kt...remnant low 96hr VT 09/1200z 23.0n 43.0w 25 kt...remnant low 120hr VT 10/1200z 19.5n 47.0w 20 kt...remnant low
$$
Geez... wasn't the forecast from three days ago saying this thing was supposed to dissapate by now?
...Epsilon begins to weaken...should dissipate within a day or two...
At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 27.8 north... longitude 39.2 west or about 995 miles...1605 km... southwest of the Azores.
Epsilon is moving toward the southwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr. This motion is expected to slow considerably over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher gusts. Upper-level winds have become extremely hostile over Epsilon and rapid weakening is expected over the next 24 hours. Epsilon is expected to become absorbed by a cold front by Friday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles ...165 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb...29.35 inches.
Repeating the 11 PM AST position...27.8 N... 39.2 W. Movement toward...southwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 994 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 am AST.
Forecaster Franklin
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Laugh!
...Epsilon weakening rapidly...this is the last advisory... ...It is about time...
at 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Epsilon was located near latitude 26.4 north...longitude 40.3 west or about 1115 miles...1795 km...southwest of the Azores.
The depression is moving toward the southwest near 7 mph...11 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue until dissipation
maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher gusts. Epsilon is forecast to dissipate in a day or so.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...26.4 N... 40.3 W. Movement toward...southwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1006 mb.
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header nfdhsfat1 and WMO header fznt01 kwbc.
Forecaster Avila
$$
convection has vanished and Epsilon is now a tight swirl of low clouds. The cyclone is weakening rapidly and is forecast to become a remnant low within the next 12 hours. The depression or the remnant low is forecast to move toward the southwest about 5 to 10 knots steered by the low level flow until dissipation. I hope this is the end of the long lasting 2005 hurricane season.
Additional information on this system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header nfdhsfat1 and WMO header fznt01 kwbc.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 08/1500z 26.4n 40.3w 30 kt 12hr VT 09/0000z 26.0n 41.0w 25 kt...remnant low 24hr VT 09/1200z 25.5n 42.0w 25 kt...remnant low 36hr VT 10/0000z...dissipated
$$
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