Don't count your chickens too soon. If we get Alito we will have 4 solid votes: Scalia, Thomas, Roberts (we assume) and Alito. Kennedy is the new swing vote and he is NOT RELIABLE. We are still one vote away.
You are right. (Sound of Bahbah's balloon deflating.)
Yes, at best one vote away, and with Alberto Gonzales sitll waiting in the wings for a third potential court opening.
RBG will hang on through 2008..but it's possible Stevens might decide to retire..
Agree, but I do think that Ruth Buzzi Ginsgerg and Stevens both will have serious thoughts of retirement now. I think Bush gets two more picks in the next three years. Then Kennedy will look like a fool to dissent.
Actually, Kennedy has always been more of a swing vote than O'Connor was. I remember reading (and also hearing Rush read the piece on the air as well) way back when O'Connor first resigned and the Dems were first making the argument that the ideological balance on the Court had to be preserved, therefore the President had to appoint a moderate. Someone actually looked at the way she and Kennedy voted and O'Connor voted much more consistently with the conservative block more than with the liberal block. I think our side thinks she was moderate because, when she did join them, it was on a hot button issue that we paid more attention to. In any case, Alito will be a more dependable vote than she ever was. But he won't have a massive effect unless he is able to persuade someone like Kennedy. And I think that there may be more of a chance of that since his reasoning in opinions is more persuasive and logically based than O'Connor's ever was. Time will tell, though.