Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.

In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.

The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video:

WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Additional Resources:

Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24

[steveegg]

The 2100 EST position update puts her 2.5 miles SE of the 1600 track.

More importantly, it seems to put it quite a bit faster than predicted (roughly a third nearly halfway between the 2000 position and the 0200 position an hour early.

[don-o]

Indeed. Maximum prayers up. Wish I could stay up tonight. I'll check in when I am up about three in the morning

[NautiNurse]

Recon measures flight level winds, which are higher than surface wind speed. The surface winds determine SS Category. In this case, the multiplier is 0.9 due to the flight altitude.

[laz]

She's coming up on you fast, and she's picking up speed, so the onset of conditions is accelerated.

[exhaustedmomma]

Red CRoss... good info

[jeffers]

Naples, Florida Surge Potentials, Low Res:

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y138/jeffers_mz/Wilma/Naples4levels2.jpg

Naples, Florida Surge Potentials, Hi Res A:

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y138/jeffers_mz/Wilma/Naples2levels1.jpg

Naples, Florida Surge Potentials, Hi Res B:

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y138/jeffers_mz/Wilma/Naples2levels2.jpg

Marco Island Surge Potentials, Hi Res:

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y138/jeffers_mz/Wilma/marcoplus5.jpg

I didn't do anything deeper than 5 feet for Marco Island because there's not much point. Above that, everything except the CR 92-Inlet Drive-Highland Road ridge goes under.

No DLG's (digital line graphics) available for Marco Island, sorry.

[NautiNurse]

I've never in 30 years in the Keys seen a storm build up this fast

Wilma has been full of surprises since she went from TS to Cat 5 in 24 hours. She's an evil wench.

[Sam Cree]

Are your ears popping? From the pressure change? It happens in hurricanes, though I'm not sure exactly how close to the center you must be. I've been in a couple where we felt it pretty strong, and I think the faster they move, the more it is exaggerated.

[ImphClinton]

Thank goodness last thing we need is for it to become a Cat 4.

That works out to 102 Knots at the surface unfortunately still a low Cat 3.

[vigilante2]

reports of tornado damage Cocoa village to Merrit Island

[NautiNurse]

Yikes! Those visuals are terribly unsettling.

[Robert A Cook PE]

I have been hit 4 times by tornadoes... once dirct hit on home. Others, on property.

Remind me to move far away from your house. 8<)

[SE Mom]

WOW.

[Arizona Carolyn]

You never cease to amaze me with your graphics.

[NautiNurse]

reports of tornado damage Cocoa village to Merrit Island

Eeesh, so many tornados already.

[laz]

AccuWeather is predicting moderate to heavy damage all across South Florida. Big eye cutting a large swath.

Enter your favorite expletive here: ________________

[nwctwx]

Back to cat 3 now.

[jeffers]

If you folks are under the gun (south of Nashville, Tennessee), I strongly recommend having this website up full time:

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalStd.asp?loc=usa&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=RadarImagery&product=RadialVelocity&prodnav=none&pid=none

You're looking for dark green (intense wind towards the radar) areas right next to dark red (intense winds away from the radar) areas, arranged such that they indicate a counter-clockwise flow, not a clockwise flow. Many times it'll look like a double barreled shotgun, one barrel red, one green.

That's where your twisters are, or are likely to form. If you have rain overhead but don't see good data on the SRV radar plot, hop around to different transmitter sites. Range gates mean that storms too close or too far from the radar don't show up well, and another site may have a much better image.

I don't feel comfortable running a Skywarn net for Florida, because I don't know the county locations well enough, but for you that live there, this isn't difficult.

Give it a try, it might save your life.

[dixie sass]

I'm listening to the 11:00 advisory on Hurricane City.

[exhaustedmomma]

I've only lived on this property a year... wasn't here. The one that hit the house was in 1979. Tornadoes hit Bossier City, La. Our sunroom got hit. I was pregnant. The rest hit when we lived in Orange, Texas.