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From what I've been hearing, this one could be the third Cat 5 down there this season. I had heard earlier that once it entered the Gulf of Mexico it would start to pick up some westerly shear that could weaken it somewhat before making landfall. But even that feature seems to be gone now, if I'm reading things right. There's nothing at all to keep it from steadily strenghtening until it hits South Florida as a monstrous Category 5. And I wonder now much it will weaken as it crosses Florida - if it comes in low and passes over the Everglades, it may not weaken at all. All the while slamming the entire peninsula, with hurricane force winds up past Tampa, and tropical storm force winds right up to the Georgia state line.

There is a very strong trough coming to kick it NE by late week/weekend. The idea that shear from the west won't be strong is likely incorrect. IF it hits Cat 5, which I would bet against right now, then it would probably come in as a solid 3, low 4. I think it will probably peak out in the Caribbean, then weaken as the trough works on it. Charley was able to pack a very strong punch last year with a trough.. but, that's kind of rare. Charley had also just begun his turn when the eye was coming ashore. This storm could be moving ENE when it reaches FL.

105-115 at landfall seems reasonable based on what I have looked at. Wind fields will probably quite expansive. It's actually quite a tricky forecast, she could end up shooting through the Straits of FL. I'm thinking punta gorda area and S. Any westward movement more than expected in the short term shifts the threat area north a bit.

It could swing outside the outer banks and plow into new england after that. Later season storms are always tough to predict.

There's nothing at all to keep it from steadily strenghtening until it hits South Florida as a monstrous Category 5.

I really, really hope you're wrong about that. We don't need another Andrew, this time from the west. And I wonder now much it will weaken as it crosses Florida - if it comes in low and passes over the Everglades, it may not weaken at all.

When Katrina passed over Miami, and then over the Everglades, she didn't weaken at all until just before she went into the GOM. Then she quickly restrengthened.