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There is a very strong trough coming to kick it NE by late week/weekend. The idea that shear from the west won't be strong is likely incorrect. IF it hits Cat 5, which I would bet against right now, then it would probably come in as a solid 3, low 4. I think it will probably peak out in the Caribbean, then weaken as the trough works on it. Charley was able to pack a very strong punch last year with a trough.. but, that's kind of rare. Charley had also just begun his turn when the eye was coming ashore. This storm could be moving ENE when it reaches FL.

105-115 at landfall seems reasonable based on what I have looked at. Wind fields will probably quite expansive. It's actually quite a tricky forecast, she could end up shooting through the Straits of FL. I'm thinking punta gorda area and S. Any westward movement more than expected in the short term shifts the threat area north a bit.

It could swing outside the outer banks and plow into new england after that. Later season storms are always tough to predict.

It could swing outside the outer banks and plow into new england after that.

What would you say are the odds that it could swing tighter and plow into the Carolinas instead?