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Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse
-Saying how long Wilma's been a Cat 5
-Describing 3 different models, with loads of scatter.
-Net effect; slowdown in the timeline, no real change in the path.
-Continue to monitor this, most of the models continue to show a Florida landfall.
Question time.
Computer models have produced significant changes this afternoon. One of the better models has the storm stalled in the NW Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba for five days. Others continue along the previous forecast.
Thus, the NHC has slowed down the forecast track, while still maintaining essentially the same direction for now. Max Mayfield said the longer it stays in the Caribbean, the more opportunity for weakening.
Computer models have produced significant changes this afternoon. One of the better models has the storm stalled in the NW Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba for five days. Others continue along the previous forecast.
Thus, the NHC has slowed down the forecast track, while still maintaining essentially the same direction for now. Max Mayfield said the longer it stays in the Caribbean, the more opportunity for weakening.
Almost entirely from flooding - it stalled out over Honduras for four days.
Stan killed over a thousand people - and it was "just" a Cat 1. Jeanne was "just" a tropical storm along the coast of Hispanola and it killed 3,000 people.
Slow moving tropical systems over moutainous terrain are killers, whether it be Haiti, Honduras or Pennsylvania (Agnes).
The "mitch" or "donna" track is starting to look like a fair match.
That's bad...but in a way it's good, because if they think the storm is headed anyway near us, you'll be the first to be given evac orders.
Since you're in the first evac zone, you can probably wait for the orders, and just be prepared to get out once you get them.
You can go to a shelter. Roads are going to be messy with this one because if it heads this way, they're going to have already issued evac orders for the communities south of us and the roads are going to be bad.
We were talking the other day and if we ever had to evacuate and were trying to get out, I think I'd avoid the interstates at all costs.
Better to head over the Bayside Bridge and up McMullen Booth, then up 19 to Spring Hill and over on 50 inland. Or maybe we'd take the bridge, but get off on the other side and take the Veterans' Expressway north.
From watching the traffic in Houston during Rita, the Interstate is not the way I'd want to travel.
NautiNurse prebooks a motel room in Brandon in case she has to leave. Maybe she could tell you more about evac routes.
Just slowing down - not so lucky for Florida.
Fasten your seatbelts...it's gonna be a bumpy ride...
Yeah, Camille in the mountains of Virginia was another of those that killed with floods and mudslides. I was just starting high school, I think.
Going to be? :-) It already is.
Both Wilma and FR have slowed down quite a bit, so I'm wndering if Jim Robinson is running some sort of beneficial weather machine with the power of FR. Even if he can keep it out in the Carribean for 4 or 5 days, it still does not look good.
So what we now have is a fickle Wilma.Models are now sending mixed signals. I am kinda hoping it wobbles out there for five days and weakens significantly because if it keeps going over same warm water it kinda wipes out much of it's energy source, correct?
Tell me about it.
It's gonna be a long weekend for me...
placemarker
I like the two that take her through Cuba :-)
Well that's just lovely isn't it?
It probably was Gilbert in 1988 - that one scored a direct hit on the Yucatan.
That's just nuts!
Agreement among the track guidance models...which had been very good over the past couple of days...has completely collapsed today. The 06z runs of the GFS...GFDL...and NOGAPS models accelerated Wilma rapidly toward New England under the influence of a large low pressure system in the Great Lakes region. All three of these models have backed off of this solution...with the GFDL showing an extreme change...with its 5-day position shifting a mere 1650 nmi from its previous position in Maine to the western tip of Cuba. There is almost as much spread in the 5-day positions of the 12z GFS ensemble members...which range from the Yucatan to well east of the Delmarva Peninsula. What this illustrates is the extreme sensitivity of Wilma's future track to its interaction with the Great Lakes low. Over the past couple of days...Wilma has been moving slightly to the left or south of the model guidance...and the left-most of the guidance solutions are now showing Wilma delaying or missing the connection with the low. I have slowed the official forecast just a little bit at this time...but if Wilma continues to move more to the left than expected...substantial changes to the official forecast may have to be made down the line. Needless to say...confidence in the forecast track...especially the timing...has decreased considerably. The latest pressure reported by the reconnaissance aircraft was 892 mb...with peak 700 mb winds of 152 kt. The initial intensity is lowered to 140 kt. Aircraft reports...as well as microwave and conventional satellite imagery...indicate that the inner 5-mile-wide eye of Wilma is weakening within two outer eyewalls... one 10 miles wide and another about 45 miles across. In the short term...this means that the peak winds should decrease as the wind field expands...but there should be ample time for Wilma to reintensity before it approaches the Yucatan. With an increasing possibility that there will be a considerable interaction with the Yucatan...I have lowered the intensity forecast slightly in the Gulf of Mexico. Forecaster Franklin forecast positions and Max winds initial 19/2100z 17.7n 83.7w 140 kt 12hr VT 20/0600z 18.0n 84.6w 135 kt 24hr VT 20/1800z 19.2n 85.6w 145 kt 36hr VT 21/0600z 20.4n 86.2w 145 kt 48hr VT 21/1800z 21.6n 86.3w 120 kt 72hr VT 22/1800z 24.0n 84.5w 105 kt 96hr VT 23/1800z 27.5n 79.0w 80 kt 120hr VT 24/1800z 36.0n 70.0w 65 kt
My sister lives in Honduras. Mitch produced huge mudslides that just swept down mountains and took whole villages with it. Very sad, most of the damage was from rainfall amounts.
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