Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Nexus]

Yeah, the 900MB was based on satellite presentation and was definitely premature. The measured and current real pressure is indeed 894MB

[steveegg]

Er, make that 892; they "updated" the vortex data message to include a direct measurement. The 894 that was previously there was based on an extrapolation from 700 mb.

[Nexus]

eh, 892MB :)

[steveegg]

What website are you viewing these on?

A track map of the current major runs is here (same link as up at the top of the thread)

[No Blue States]

wilma's record breaking (or tying):

Wilma made history before hitting land. It is the 12th hurricane of the season, the same number reached in 1969, the highest since record-keeping began in 1851. It is also the 21st named storm, tying the record set in 1933.

Early Tuesday, Wilma was only a tropical storm with wind of 70 mph. With wind more than 100 mph faster by the same time Wednesday, it had shown the most rapid strengthening ever recorded in a hurricane, said Hugh Cobb, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Add to that the lowest pressure ever recorded.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051019/ap_on_re_us/wilma_florida

[steveegg]

Somebody slap both anchors over at TWC. This less-than-15-minute change from an estimate to an extrapolation to a direct measurement done at the same time as the extrapolation does not, repeat NOT necessarily represent a re-strengthening.

[brivette]

Superstorm in New England? Tell me more...

[Brad’s Gramma]

BTTT cuz I'd like to know too...

[Sam Cree]

I figure that when the storm makes its right turn, Friday morning or so, that's when we'll have high confidence in the track prediction, where it will land.

[tutstar]

Thanks. The maps I was looking at weren't showing what janet had said, but now they are.

I haven't been to the link you posted, thanks.

[dirtboy]

However, the GFDL, and the BAMD (both GFS-derived models) do show Wilma spending an extended amount of time over the Yucatan and sort of slowly drifting east, to south of Cuba; both models only run out 5 days and at 5 days the storm is still south of W Cuba heading nowhere in particular.

Recall that Mitch became a Cat 5 in 1998 about this time in the Western Caribbean and then stalled just off Honduras.

[Genoa]

Are BAMD, BAMM, and GFDL all showing junk runs, or could this be significant? Also, looks like the extrap is more westerly than before.

[AGreatPer]

My daughter made it through Hugo in Cancun. At that time they didn't even tell the tourists it was coming until it was too late. Fortunately, that policy has changed now.

[janetjanet998]

a 1 nm wide eye?.....if someone told me that before i would of said that was impossible

[tutstar]

Ever see The Day After Tomorrow?

Look at the earth's northern most parts on this map

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Almost every storm we've had it's been like that.

[steveegg]

Are BAMD, BAMM, and GFDL all showing junk runs, or could this be significant? Also, looks like the extrap is more westerly than before.

You got me. Dirtboy just pointed out that Mitch did what the GFS-based models are showing. We'll see what the NHC says in something less than 2 hours.

[steveegg]

Nope. Should I burn the couple hours to watch its constant running on the HBO/Cinemax family?

[steveegg]

1 nm eye? I've heard of tornadoes wider than that. Of course, they didn't have a huge mass of clouds wrapping themselves around them.

[tutstar]

It's a really good movie! Suspense, some action, and we "think" we heard one bad word. One could say it's an attempt to scare us about global warming but it's a great movie, it will get you on the edge of your seat in several spots.

[Sam Cree]

"Recall that Mitch became a Cat 5 in 1998 about this time in the Western Caribbean and then stalled just off Honduras."

Yes. And then went flying through the upper Keys as a tropical storm or cat one, I forget which. I could hear the thunder and see the skies lighting up from my house in South Dade.