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Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )
NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: hurricane; notbreakingnews; tropical; weather; wilma
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To: steveegg

Yeah, the 900MB was based on satellite presentation and was definitely premature. The measured and current real pressure is indeed 894MB


861 posted on 10/19/2005 11:53:13 AM PDT by Nexus
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To: Nexus

Er, make that 892; they "updated" the vortex data message to include a direct measurement. The 894 that was previously there was based on an extrapolation from 700 mb.


862 posted on 10/19/2005 11:54:53 AM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: steveegg

eh, 892MB :)


863 posted on 10/19/2005 11:55:17 AM PDT by Nexus
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To: tutstar
What website are you viewing these on?

A track map of the current major runs is here (same link as up at the top of the thread)

864 posted on 10/19/2005 11:57:30 AM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: steveegg

wilma's record breaking (or tying):

Wilma made history before hitting land. It is the 12th hurricane of the season, the same number reached in 1969, the highest since record-keeping began in 1851. It is also the 21st named storm, tying the record set in 1933.

Early Tuesday, Wilma was only a tropical storm with wind of 70 mph. With wind more than 100 mph faster by the same time Wednesday, it had shown the most rapid strengthening ever recorded in a hurricane, said Hugh Cobb, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Add to that the lowest pressure ever recorded.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051019/ap_on_re_us/wilma_florida


865 posted on 10/19/2005 11:58:42 AM PDT by No Blue States
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To: Nexus

Somebody slap both anchors over at TWC. This less-than-15-minute change from an estimate to an extrapolation to a direct measurement done at the same time as the extrapolation does not, repeat NOT necessarily represent a re-strengthening.


866 posted on 10/19/2005 11:59:30 AM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: janetjanet998

Superstorm in New England? Tell me more...


867 posted on 10/19/2005 12:01:48 PM PDT by brivette
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To: brivette

BTTT cuz I'd like to know too...


868 posted on 10/19/2005 12:02:47 PM PDT by Brad’s Gramma (FR1....Varoooooom, Varooooooom!!!)
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To: sheikdetailfeather

I figure that when the storm makes its right turn, Friday morning or so, that's when we'll have high confidence in the track prediction, where it will land.


869 posted on 10/19/2005 12:04:13 PM PDT by Sam Cree (absolute reality - Miami)
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To: steveegg

Thanks. The maps I was looking at weren't showing what janet had said, but now they are.

I haven't been to the link you posted, thanks.


870 posted on 10/19/2005 12:04:33 PM PDT by tutstar (OurFlorida.true.ws)
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To: Strategerist
However, the GFDL, and the BAMD (both GFS-derived models) do show Wilma spending an extended amount of time over the Yucatan and sort of slowly drifting east, to south of Cuba; both models only run out 5 days and at 5 days the storm is still south of W Cuba heading nowhere in particular.

Recall that Mitch became a Cat 5 in 1998 about this time in the Western Caribbean and then stalled just off Honduras.

871 posted on 10/19/2005 12:04:55 PM PDT by dirtboy (Drool overflowed my buffer...)
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To: steveegg

Are BAMD, BAMM, and GFDL all showing junk runs, or could this be significant? Also, looks like the extrap is more westerly than before.


872 posted on 10/19/2005 12:06:43 PM PDT by Genoa
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To: publana

My daughter made it through Hugo in Cancun. At that time they didn't even tell the tourists it was coming until it was too late. Fortunately, that policy has changed now.


873 posted on 10/19/2005 12:07:06 PM PDT by AGreatPer ( Where I live Roe V Wade is a decision on how you have to cross the Susquehanna River)
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To: dirtboy

a 1 nm wide eye?.....if someone told me that before i would of said that was impossible


874 posted on 10/19/2005 12:08:14 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: steveegg

Ever see The Day After Tomorrow?

Look at the earth's northern most parts on this map

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Almost every storm we've had it's been like that.


875 posted on 10/19/2005 12:08:41 PM PDT by tutstar (OurFlorida.true.ws)
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To: Genoa
Are BAMD, BAMM, and GFDL all showing junk runs, or could this be significant? Also, looks like the extrap is more westerly than before.

You got me. Dirtboy just pointed out that Mitch did what the GFS-based models are showing. We'll see what the NHC says in something less than 2 hours.

876 posted on 10/19/2005 12:09:21 PM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: tutstar

Nope. Should I burn the couple hours to watch its constant running on the HBO/Cinemax family?


877 posted on 10/19/2005 12:11:30 PM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: janetjanet998

1 nm eye? I've heard of tornadoes wider than that. Of course, they didn't have a huge mass of clouds wrapping themselves around them.


878 posted on 10/19/2005 12:12:56 PM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: steveegg

It's a really good movie! Suspense, some action, and we "think" we heard one bad word. One could say it's an attempt to scare us about global warming but it's a great movie, it will get you on the edge of your seat in several spots.


879 posted on 10/19/2005 12:14:07 PM PDT by tutstar (OurFlorida.true.ws)
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To: dirtboy
"Recall that Mitch became a Cat 5 in 1998 about this time in the Western Caribbean and then stalled just off Honduras."

Yes. And then went flying through the upper Keys as a tropical storm or cat one, I forget which. I could hear the thunder and see the skies lighting up from my house in South Dade.

880 posted on 10/19/2005 12:15:15 PM PDT by Sam Cree (absolute reality - Miami)
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