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Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )
NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: hurricane; notbreakingnews; tropical; weather; wilma
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To: blam

Looks like it will head quickly to the parched New England area where it will probably camp out and bring a couple weeks of much needed rain.


821 posted on 10/19/2005 10:26:22 AM PDT by RightWhale (Repeal the law of the excluded middle)
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To: Certain_Doom; Howlin

Ping to a new Google Earth tool.


822 posted on 10/19/2005 10:26:29 AM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: proud American in Canada
I have a question--how in the world do these guys fly airplanes into the eye of a hurricane without getting shredded by the storm? It seems completely impossible.

Well, remember that any plane flying at 250 mph, for example, is handling 250 mph "winds". A jet fighter traveling at Mach 2 is handling 1,300 mph "winds"! The airframe is designed to handle airflow at speeds much higher than a hurricane produces - the difficulty, as a previous poster pointed out, is maintaining a steady course through such heavy crosswinds and dealing with the turbulence.

823 posted on 10/19/2005 10:26:42 AM PDT by Mr. Jeeves (Speaking several languages is an asset; keeping your mouth shut in one is priceless.)
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To: janetjanet998; steveegg

Steepness of bottom contour is also a major ingredient in surge height, with gradual shallowing, as exists along most of the Gulf coast, being an indicator of higher surges. IMO, a faster moving storm should create a larger surge, since the forward speed of the strong side will be added to the speed at which the winds are rotating around the center. Just my guess, though.


824 posted on 10/19/2005 10:26:52 AM PDT by Sam Cree (absolute reality - Miami)
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To: NautiNurse



825 posted on 10/19/2005 10:31:02 AM PDT by flattorney
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To: NautiNurse
Just topped off the solar battery bank with water

Make sure it gets enough charge to properly mix the distilled water in the electrolyte. Up north, I have to use an auxiliary charger to do that this time of the year -- it has to "boil" a little. Agree on the importance of the chocolate.

826 posted on 10/19/2005 10:32:06 AM PDT by steve86 (@)
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To: NormsRevenge
Some of those tracks brought the storms heading out-to-sea over or near my present day location! NE FLA(Jacksonville)!
827 posted on 10/19/2005 10:36:35 AM PDT by yield 2 the right
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To: Sam Cree

As of today, which is subject to change, Ch. 13 in Orlando has it coming in as a CAT 3 after shearing takes place. Wind field is to expand some in time. The center is to move onshore between Collier and Charlotte counties and move quickly through Florida. The center of circulation then goes right through Lake Okeehobee. The graphic shows it at 135 mph at 8am. At 8am Sunday it is shown as a CAT 2 at 105 mph as it moves off of the east coast of Fla.


828 posted on 10/19/2005 10:41:35 AM PDT by sheikdetailfeather (If you still vote Democrat, you're still stuck on stupid!)
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To: All

Keys Evacuates Tourists As Wilma Looms
Mitch Stacy - AP

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051019/ap_on_re_us/wilma_florida_23;_ylt=AlsXoUt_Knj97A1v71m.MYSCbpwv;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

PUNTA GORDA, Fla. - Visitors were ordered out of the Florida Keys on Wednesday as Hurricane Wilma exploded into the most intense Atlantic hurricane on record, with meteorologists warning that it could maintain devastating power as it crosses Florida from the Gulf Coast to the Atlantic.

The storm, which was menacing Cuba and Central America with sustained wind of 175 mph, could be a weakened but still significant threat to the state by this weekend, forecasters said.

Wilma was expected to come ashore in southwestern Florida, threatening coastal areas like Punta Gorda that were battered by Charley, the Category 4 storm that was the first of seven hurricanes to strike or pass close to the state since August 2004.

Monroe County officials ordered visitors out of the Florida Keys starting at noon Wednesday. Tourists are generally told to leave ahead of others on the lengthy chain of islands connected by one highway.

On the state's southwest coast, Collier County officials hadn't ordered anyone to leave the Naples area, but "we are telling those folks who are more comfortable evacuating to go ahead. If they wait there could be road congestion and other problems," said Jaime Sarbagh, a county emergency management spokeswoman.

Early Tuesday, Wilma was only a tropical storm with wind of 70 mph. With wind more than 100 mph faster by the same time Wednesday, it had shown in the most rapid strengthening ever recorded in a hurricane, said Hugh Cobb, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

It is forecast to be a potentially devastating Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall, although experts acknowledge they have little skill in making strength forecasts. A Category 3 storm has wind of at least 111 mph, a Category 4 has wind of 131 to 155 mph, and a Category 5 is anything above that.

At 11 a.m. Wednesday, Wilma was still in the western Caribbean, more than 500 miles south of Key West and heading toward the west-northwest at 7 mph. However, the storm should eventually make a sharp right turn toward Florida and pick up forward speed in the Gulf of Mexico because it will get caught in the westerlies, the strong wind current that generally blows toward the east, forecasters said.

Wilma was expected to move across Florida rapidly, which means it wouldn't weaken much over land, Cobb said. That means it's possible Atlantic coast cities such as Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach could be hit by wind nearly as strong as on the west coast, he said.

Paul Malbon anxiously watched Wilma's progress from the five-story Best Western waterfront hotel he owns and runs in Fort Myers Beach, on the west coast south of Punta Gorda. Hurricane Charley's storm surge shoved sand and water into the ground floor last year but everything was quickly repaired.

"I don't wish bad luck on anybody else but I hope it doesn't come here," he said Wednesday.

Asked if he feared the area might get slammed again, he replied: "Only the man upstairs knows the answer to that one. It don't look good at the moment."

Charley was the first of six hurricanes to strike the state since August 2004, causing more than $20 billion and killing nearly 150 people.

The state routinely replenishes emergency supplies of water, food and ice at staging points so no additional action is needed, emergency management spokesman Mike Stone said earlier. Supermarkets and home-repair chains stocked extra food, ice and other supplies.

Many Punta Gorda homes and businesses have been rebuilt in a construction boom, but some are still boarded up. More than 6,800 federal trailers and mobile homes remain scattered around the state as temporary housing installed after the six storms, with 934 in Charlotte County alone.

Wilma made history before hitting land. It is the 12th hurricane of the season, the same number reached in 1969, the highest since record-keeping began in 1851. It is also the 21st named storm, tying the record set in 1933.

The six-month hurricane season ends Nov. 30. Wilma is the last on the 21-name list for storms this year. If any other storms form, letters from the Greek alphabet would be used for the first time, starting with Alpha.

___

On the Net:

National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov


829 posted on 10/19/2005 10:42:26 AM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Monthly Donor spoken Here. Go to ... https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: jeeperz

Good luck in getting through this. My mom has a condo on the beach in Naples. She's not there, but do you know of a place where she can have her car taken to get it away from any storm surge? I'm sure your busy with LOTS of other things so don't worry about answering this if nothing quickly comes to mind.

Again - Good Luck!


830 posted on 10/19/2005 10:44:26 AM PDT by geopyg (Ever Vigilant, Never Fearful)
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To: NormsRevenge

bttt


831 posted on 10/19/2005 10:45:06 AM PDT by Txsleuth (Please say a prayer, and hold positive thoughts for Texas Cowboy...and Faith.)
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To: NautiNurse

I'm currently chatting on skype with my highschool girlfriend who lives in Cancun. They aren't evacuating. :/ She says they made it through Gilbert; so they'll make it through this one. Their tour boat sank in Stan that was their main source of income. She has a business making stuff to sell to the tourist shops, but every time a hurricane comes through, her business goes to pot for 6 months waiting for tourism to come back and the shops to rebuild.

For the life of me, I cannot comprehend not evacuating with such a moster bearing down on me. I'm worried sick about her and her family. :/


832 posted on 10/19/2005 10:46:30 AM PDT by publana (yes, I checked the preview box without previewing)
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To: yield 2 the right

Me too. Dollar store is the best deal on batteries.


833 posted on 10/19/2005 10:49:32 AM PDT by tutstar (OurFlorida.true.ws)
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To: NormsRevenge

Something must be going on at the NHC; Franklin usualy is early with the advisories, and 2 pm is coming up quick.


834 posted on 10/19/2005 10:55:50 AM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: tutstar

2 of the models runs just in (GFS and GFDL) show it stalling near the yacatan channel for 5 days and not hitting FL until later..also this would prevent the superstorm in the NE US....this stall is becuase the trough in the midwest doesn't catch it and turn it north in these runs


835 posted on 10/19/2005 10:56:53 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: tutstar

2 of the models runs just in (GFS and GFDL) show it stalling near the yacatan channel for 5 days and not hitting FL until later..also this would prevent the superstorm in the NE US....this stall is becuase the trough in the midwest doesn't catch it and turn it north in these runs


836 posted on 10/19/2005 10:57:13 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: NautiNurse

Check out the motion of Wilma's eye. It is wobbling like a spinning top.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
(Note: this is photo sequence that takes a while to load)


837 posted on 10/19/2005 10:59:00 AM PDT by PhilipFreneau ("Resist the devil, and he will flee from you." -- James 4:7)
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To: steveegg

I hear ya! Can't stand the delay! Coffee time!!!


838 posted on 10/19/2005 10:59:17 AM PDT by tutstar (OurFlorida.true.ws)
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To: janetjanet998; NautiNurse
Here comes some good news; winds down to 165 mph and pressure up to an estimated 900 mb -

Hurricane Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 17a

Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on October 19, 2005

...Wilma weakens slightly...

 
at 2 PM EDT...1800z...the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch
for the Cayman Islands has been discontinued.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Tulum on
the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and nearby islands.  A
hurricane is also in effect for Swan Island.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from south of Tulum to
Chetumal Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the East Coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula from south of Tulum to Punta gruesa. 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Belize from the border
with Mexico southward to Belize City.

 
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the provinces of
Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of
Youth.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

 
All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma.

 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located
near latitude 17.5 north... longitude 83.5 west or about 300
miles... 480 km... southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

 
Wilma is wobbling around an average motion toward the west-northwest
near 7 mph ...11 km/hr. A turn toward the northwest is expected
during the next 24 hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph...270 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Wilma is a potentially catastrophic category five hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  Fluctuations in intensity are common
in hurricanes of this intensity...and are likely during the next 24
hours.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  50 miles... 85 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  900 mb...26.58 inches.  An
Air Force aircraft will be in the center of Wilma shortly to
provide a direct measure of the central pressure.

 
Wilma is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 10 to 15
inches...with local amounts near 25 inches in mountainous terrain
across Cuba through Friday.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 5
to 10 inches...with local amounts of 15 inches...are possible
across the Cayman Islands...Swan Island...and Jamaica through
Thursday.  Storm total accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with
isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches...are possible from Honduras
northward to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday.

 
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...17.5 N... 83.5 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near  7 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...165 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 900 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.

 
Forecaster Franklin

839 posted on 10/19/2005 11:00:24 AM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: janetjanet998

pressure is 900mb now and 165MPH wind...but it is all estimated..recon plane should be in shortly


840 posted on 10/19/2005 11:00:41 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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