Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: tutstar

2 of the models runs just in (GFS and GFDL) show it stalling near the yacatan channel for 5 days and not hitting FL until later..also this would prevent the superstorm in the NE US....this stall is becuase the trough in the midwest doesn't catch it and turn it north in these runs


835 posted on 10/19/2005 10:56:53 AM PDT by janetjanet998
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 833 | View Replies ]


To: janetjanet998; NautiNurse
Here comes some good news; winds down to 165 mph and pressure up to an estimated 900 mb -

Hurricane Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 17a

Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on October 19, 2005

...Wilma weakens slightly...

 
at 2 PM EDT...1800z...the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch
for the Cayman Islands has been discontinued.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Tulum on
the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and nearby islands.  A
hurricane is also in effect for Swan Island.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from south of Tulum to
Chetumal Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the East Coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula from south of Tulum to Punta gruesa. 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Belize from the border
with Mexico southward to Belize City.

 
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the provinces of
Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of
Youth.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

 
All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma.

 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located
near latitude 17.5 north... longitude 83.5 west or about 300
miles... 480 km... southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

 
Wilma is wobbling around an average motion toward the west-northwest
near 7 mph ...11 km/hr. A turn toward the northwest is expected
during the next 24 hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph...270 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Wilma is a potentially catastrophic category five hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  Fluctuations in intensity are common
in hurricanes of this intensity...and are likely during the next 24
hours.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  50 miles... 85 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  900 mb...26.58 inches.  An
Air Force aircraft will be in the center of Wilma shortly to
provide a direct measure of the central pressure.

 
Wilma is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 10 to 15
inches...with local amounts near 25 inches in mountainous terrain
across Cuba through Friday.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 5
to 10 inches...with local amounts of 15 inches...are possible
across the Cayman Islands...Swan Island...and Jamaica through
Thursday.  Storm total accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with
isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches...are possible from Honduras
northward to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday.

 
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...17.5 N... 83.5 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near  7 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...165 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 900 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.

 
Forecaster Franklin

839 posted on 10/19/2005 11:00:24 AM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 835 | View Replies ]

To: janetjanet998

pressure is 900mb now and 165MPH wind...but it is all estimated..recon plane should be in shortly


840 posted on 10/19/2005 11:00:41 AM PDT by janetjanet998
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 835 | View Replies ]

To: janetjanet998
2 of the models runs just in (GFS and GFDL) show it stalling near the yacatan channel for 5 days and not hitting FL until later..also this would prevent the superstorm in the NE US....this stall is becuase the trough in the midwest doesn't catch it and turn it north in these runs

Please, explain this more for me! Thanks!

847 posted on 10/19/2005 11:32:55 AM PDT by exhaustedmomma (Calling illegal alien an undocumented immigrant is like calling a burglar an uninvited house guest)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 835 | View Replies ]

To: janetjanet998

Superstorm in New England? Tell me more...


867 posted on 10/19/2005 12:01:48 PM PDT by brivette
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 835 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson