Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[lifacs]

I called my mother yesterday, they are in Stuart (landfall for Frances & Jeanne 2004). The current track has the storm exiting the state in their area. That limits evac options.

The local news here in Palm Beach County (WFLX) is currently predicting it will cut right through our county, just south of Lake Okeechobee. They are also saying that they expect it to come in the western side of Florida a cat. 3 and because of forward speed, will only diminish to cat 2 by the time it reaches us here. Of course, this could all change at any moment. With her current track, about all we can count on is that practically the whole state will feel *something* from Wilma.

[Sender]

882 millibars verified. Could go this way, could go that way. Gonna go some way. Woo hoo, here we go again. Hunker Nation, please check your seat restraints and secure all personal objects.

[Moose4]

882. Dear God. Were their initial estimates whacked, or did this thing really go from a tropical storm to a Category Five hurricane in only 24 hours?

}:-)4

[grwcfl537]

Just looked the wv, ir, and vis loops and looks like a slight SW dip.

[Rebelbase]

I bet the touristas have jammed the airports at Cancun and Cozumel trying to get flights out of there.

[WestCoastGal]

Good grief this was a one or possible two when I went to bed last night. Yikes, prayers for ya'll over there.

[brothers4thID]

Mary Mother of God, pray for those in the path of this monster.

[Rebelbase]

Cozumel live shot webcam at 7:17am. Do you think she'll make a run for it?

[Quilla]

Thanks for the ping NautiNurse. As others have mentioned, I was floored to see Wilma had evolved into a Cat 5 overnight. Another monster heading toward our fine Floridian neighbors - sheesh, y'all had more than your fair share of hurricanes.

I'm in Dothan, AL, 100 miles north of Panama City. With two children off at college, we have lots of room these days. Any freeper that wants to get out of harm's way is cordially invited to be our guests. We'll inundate you with hospitality - southern style.

[Strategerist]

LBAR is an ancient model which is at its worst for storms making turns into the Westerlies; it's an Apple II among Pentium computers.

Generally ignore everything besides the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET, GUNA, BAMD, and CONU. Of most on-line spaghetti maps CONU, if it's recently updated, is probably the most valid.

[tiredoflaundry]

ok, Now I'm scared.

[Strategerist]

A problem as seen with Rita is too many people evacuating.

The basic purpose of evacuating is to not die in a storm surge, not to avoid hurricane winds. Won't be one on the East Coast of Florida.

Even in Andrew a very limited number of people were killed in the thousands of homes destroyed by wind.

Charley was a fluke in having very little storm surge. Hard to forecast the evolution of this storm but it's unlikely to be as narrow as Charley.

And a true Cat 3+ "normal" surge puts the entire towns of Naples, etc. under water, just like the coast of MS in Katrina.

[metmom]

The most intense in the Atlantic goes to Gilbert in 1988 at 888 millibars.

Not anymore. 882 mb as of 8 AM

[Rebelbase]

Cancun:

6:00 AM The government issued the yellow alert for the state of Quintana Roo a few minutes ago. In press conference the civil protection director informed that new official information will be provided every 6 hours as of today. The warning color could change to orange later tonight and red for tomorrow.

http://www.cancun.bz/cancun_news.htm

[metmom]

I try to go to bed at a decent time and just as I'm doing one last FR check, something like this happens. Why does it have to happen at night? Speaking of that, the way this thing intensifed overnight is really concerning. What's going to happen today with daytime heating.

[Dog]

My brother and his wife are in Bonita Springs.....I think I will call them this morning.

[metmom]

A lot of those keys on the Gulf are awfully close to sea level.

[N8VTXNinWV]

praying for you and yours NN! Stay Safe!

[metmom]

Really. Nobody expected this so anything's possible. Problem is, weakening from this isn't the same as weakening from a moderate 3.

[Dog Gone]

This storm isn't a hurricane. It's a 35 mile wide tornado.