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Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
The lastest detailed steering maps show that's exactly what Wilma's going to do....shoot right through the Yucatan Strait, on the west side of the Straits now, then take a hard right and head straight to the South Florida Peninsula.
I'm flying out of Miami, with my cat, late tonight (Wed) to Houston. Work out of my brother's law office in Houston the rest of the week and weekend. My home and property will be secure by late today. I live right on Key Biscayne Bay facing South Miami. Looks like we are going to catch the "dirty side" of Wilma, but time will tell.
I'll posit that 1933 was busier. They didn't have satellites and hurricane-hunter planes back then, so unless a hurricane blasted onto land where people were or a ship blundered into it, nobody knew.
That's a good point. So much for global warming eh?
Who the hell could have predicted this? What a storm.
Hopefully Wilma will stay well south, but glad to hear that you and yours will be out of its path.
Okay, Wilma, you've set a new record and you beat your sisters Katrina and Rita. We're impressed. You don't need to show off anymore.
We'll know in about a half hour. Wilma looks like a tornado wrapped up in a lot of hurricane from where I sit.
No kidding. She can just go away now. She got our attention.
HOLY MOLY..I actually got some sleep for once(10 hour nap) and had to make sure this real and wasn't a dream/nightmare...
I've been up all night and I'm wondering the same thing.
You might not have any place to go to. Hope I'm wrong.
000 URNT12 KNHC 190835 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 19/08:00:30Z B. 17 deg 03 min N 082 deg 20 min W C. 700 mb 2082 m D. NA kt E. NA deg nm F. 320 deg 166 kt G. 221 deg 003 nm H. 884 mb I. 10 C/ 3073 m J. 24 C/ 3043 m K. 10 C/ NA L. CLOSED M. C4 N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 16 MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z<
693
URNT12 KNHC 190835
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/08:00:30Z
B. 17 deg 03 min N
082 deg 20 min W
C. 700 mb 2082 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 320 deg 166 kt
G. 221 deg 003 nm
H. 884 mb
I. 10 C/ 3073 m
J. 24 C/ 3043 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z
884? No way. Just no way!
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=59017
000
WTNT34 KNHC 190835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED 884 MB...THE LOWEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER MEASURED IN A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...THIS VALUE SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL CALIBRATED...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 365 MILES...
590 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 884
MB...26.10 INCHES. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE EVER RECORDED IN A
HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS PRESSURE VALUE
SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL IT IS FULLY CALIBRATED.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 884 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
WLIMA is now the strongest Hurricane on record in the altantic basin with a pressure of 884MB breaking gilberts record of 888mb
How long before Al Qaeda starts boasting about this new soldier of Allah?
I can't believe it. She broke the Gilbert record...
In October! Wow...
Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 16
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 19, 2005
in addition to the spectacular cloud pattern observed on satellite
...An Air Force reconnaissance plane measured 168 knots at 700 mb
and estimated a minimum pressure of 884 mb extrapolated from 700mb.
Unofficially...the meteorologist on board the plane relied an
extrapolated 881 mb pressure and measured 884 mb with a dropsonde.
This is all in association with a very small eye that has been
oscillating between 2 and 4 N mi during eye penetrations. This is
probably the lowest minimum pressure ever observed in the Atlantic
Basin and is followed by the 888 mb minimum pressure associated
with hurricane Gilbert in 1988. However...one must be very careful
before it is declared a record minimum pressure until a full and
detailed calibration of the instruments and calculations is
performed. So please do not jump into conclusions yet...be patient.
Wilma is a catastrophic category five hurricane that is moving over
very warm waters...typical of the northwestern Caribbean Sea...and
within an environment of light shear. However...despite the
favorable large scale environment...Wilma is near its maximum
potential intensity and further strengthening is not anticipated.
Most likely...the small eye will collapse followed by slight
weakening or some fluctuations in intensity. Eyewall replacement
cycles will likely control the intensity for the next 2 to 3 days
while the hurricane is over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Thereafter...once Wilma reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and
encounters the westerlies and high shear...weakening should begin.
The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at
7 knots. It seems that data from the high altitude NOAA jet
ingested by models caused the track guidance envelope to shift
slightly westward for the 2 to 3 day period. However...no change in
track is indicated over the Gulf of Mexico and guidance continues
to turn Wilma sharply to the northeast over Florida. Based on the
latest guidance...the official track forecast has been shifted
slightly westward but is kept on the eastern side of the envelope.
This in case the track guidance shifts back to the east in the next
run.
In summary...the official forecast brings the core of this
catastrophic hurricane northward through the Yucatan Channel and
then sharply turns a weaker hurricane to the northeast toward
Florida with an increase in forward speed. No change in warnings
or watches is required at this time.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 19/0900z 17.2n 82.5w 150 kt
12hr VT 19/1800z 17.7n 83.4w 150 kt
24hr VT 20/0600z 18.5n 84.7w 145 kt
36hr VT 20/1800z 20.0n 85.5w 140 kt
48hr VT 21/0600z 21.0n 85.7w 130 kt
72hr VT 22/0600z 22.5n 86.0w 115 kt
96hr VT 23/0600z 26.5n 81.0w 90 kt...inland
120hr VT 24/0600z 33.0n 72.0w 70 kt
$$
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