000
WTNT34 KNHC 190835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED 884 MB...THE LOWEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER MEASURED IN A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...THIS VALUE SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL CALIBRATED...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 365 MILES...
590 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 884
MB...26.10 INCHES. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE EVER RECORDED IN A
HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS PRESSURE VALUE
SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL IT IS FULLY CALIBRATED.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 884 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 16
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 19, 2005
in addition to the spectacular cloud pattern observed on satellite
...An Air Force reconnaissance plane measured 168 knots at 700 mb
and estimated a minimum pressure of 884 mb extrapolated from 700mb.
Unofficially...the meteorologist on board the plane relied an
extrapolated 881 mb pressure and measured 884 mb with a dropsonde.
This is all in association with a very small eye that has been
oscillating between 2 and 4 N mi during eye penetrations. This is
probably the lowest minimum pressure ever observed in the Atlantic
Basin and is followed by the 888 mb minimum pressure associated
with hurricane Gilbert in 1988. However...one must be very careful
before it is declared a record minimum pressure until a full and
detailed calibration of the instruments and calculations is
performed. So please do not jump into conclusions yet...be patient.
Wilma is a catastrophic category five hurricane that is moving over
very warm waters...typical of the northwestern Caribbean Sea...and
within an environment of light shear. However...despite the
favorable large scale environment...Wilma is near its maximum
potential intensity and further strengthening is not anticipated.
Most likely...the small eye will collapse followed by slight
weakening or some fluctuations in intensity. Eyewall replacement
cycles will likely control the intensity for the next 2 to 3 days
while the hurricane is over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Thereafter...once Wilma reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and
encounters the westerlies and high shear...weakening should begin.
The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at
7 knots. It seems that data from the high altitude NOAA jet
ingested by models caused the track guidance envelope to shift
slightly westward for the 2 to 3 day period. However...no change in
track is indicated over the Gulf of Mexico and guidance continues
to turn Wilma sharply to the northeast over Florida. Based on the
latest guidance...the official track forecast has been shifted
slightly westward but is kept on the eastern side of the envelope.
This in case the track guidance shifts back to the east in the next
run.
In summary...the official forecast brings the core of this
catastrophic hurricane northward through the Yucatan Channel and
then sharply turns a weaker hurricane to the northeast toward
Florida with an increase in forward speed. No change in warnings
or watches is required at this time.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 19/0900z 17.2n 82.5w 150 kt
12hr VT 19/1800z 17.7n 83.4w 150 kt
24hr VT 20/0600z 18.5n 84.7w 145 kt
36hr VT 20/1800z 20.0n 85.5w 140 kt
48hr VT 21/0600z 21.0n 85.7w 130 kt
72hr VT 22/0600z 22.5n 86.0w 115 kt
96hr VT 23/0600z 26.5n 81.0w 90 kt...inland
120hr VT 24/0600z 33.0n 72.0w 70 kt
$$