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Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )
NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: hurricane; notbreakingnews; tropical; weather; wilma
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To: NautiNurse

It's building strength, alright. Thanks for the notice, NN.


21 posted on 10/18/2005 7:54:47 AM PDT by Alia
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To: NautiNurse

It's building strength, alright. Thanks for the notice, NN.


22 posted on 10/18/2005 7:54:51 AM PDT by Alia
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To: blam

"Not this $#!+ again!"


23 posted on 10/18/2005 7:55:32 AM PDT by Travis McGee (--- www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com ---)
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To: NautiNurse

NN,

I bet you are getting tired of starting these hurricane live threads...


24 posted on 10/18/2005 7:57:00 AM PDT by GreenLanternCorps (5-1 Marvin and Carson rule!!! Who Dey! Who Dey! Who Dey Think Gonna Beat Dem Bengals!!!)
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To: NautiNurse
And the 11 am discussion; it sounds like Wilma will remain a hurricane all the way across Florida (yikes!) -

Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 12

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 18, 2005

Wilma is being upgraded to a hurricane based on subjective Dvorak
classifications of t4.0 from all agencies...and objective T numbers
from UW/CIMSS of t4.5 since 09z. Another reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to be in the system this afternoon. Cold convection is
being maintained over the center...and strong upper-level outflow
channels continue to the northeast and southwest of the center.
Oceanic heat content ahead of Wilma is high. The only inhibiting
factor is the dry air mass in the Gulf and extreme northwestern
Caribbean...but the large and growing circulation of Wilma should
be able to keep much of this air from reaching the core. A high
likelihood of rapid strengthening is indicated by the SHIPS rapid
intensification index...and it is likely that Wilma will be a major
hurricane when it enters the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. As Wilma
accelerates northeastward late in the forecast period...wind shear
is forecast to increase...but there may not be enough of it to
weaken Wilma very quickly. However...it is Worth remembering that
there is little skill in long-range intensity forecasts.
The initial motion is estimated to be 320/5.  There has been little
change to the track forecast thinking.  The mid- to upper-level low
that had been off the Southern California coast is now moving
northeastward...and as it progresses high pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico is expected to weaken...allowing Wilma to move through the
northwestern Caribbean and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in
about three days.  Once Wilma moves north of the subtropical ridge
axis and encounters mid-level westerly flow...an acceleration
northeastward is expected.  Model guidance has not changed much and
remains in very good agreement...and the official forecast is very
similar to the previous advisory and close to the dynamical model
consensus.
Wilma...the 12th hurricane of the season...ties the record for most
hurricanes in a season set in 1969.
 
Forecaster Franklin
 
 
forecast positions and Max winds
 
initial      18/1500z 16.5n  80.6w    65 kt
 12hr VT     19/0000z 17.0n  81.2w    75 kt
 24hr VT     19/1200z 17.7n  82.3w    90 kt
 36hr VT     20/0000z 18.5n  83.5w   100 kt
 48hr VT     20/1200z 19.6n  84.5w   105 kt
 72hr VT     21/1200z 22.0n  85.5w   105 kt
 96hr VT     22/1200z 24.0n  84.0w   100 kt
120hr VT     23/1200z 28.5n  78.5w    75 kt

25 posted on 10/18/2005 7:57:57 AM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: NautiNurse

I heard from some weather wonk last night that this late in the season a storm going into the Gulf from this area tends to hook to the right and weaken. Here's hoping :)


26 posted on 10/18/2005 7:58:59 AM PDT by mewzilla (Property must be secured or liberty cannot exist. John Adams)
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks for the ping, NN. Being near Ocala, looks like I'm north of the projected path. I'd feel a lot better if my new roof was finished. My son-in-law says "one more day".


27 posted on 10/18/2005 8:04:24 AM PDT by Alice in Wonderland
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To: mewzilla

I like your optimism :)


28 posted on 10/18/2005 8:04:58 AM PDT by Guenevere (God bless our military!...and God bless the President of the United States!)
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To: Guenevere

I'm a glass-is-half-full kinda gal :)


29 posted on 10/18/2005 8:06:34 AM PDT by mewzilla (Property must be secured or liberty cannot exist. John Adams)
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To: NautiNurse

bump


30 posted on 10/18/2005 8:06:51 AM PDT by tom paine 2
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To: Termite_Commander

That is a really dramatic right turn towards Florida.


31 posted on 10/18/2005 8:07:43 AM PDT by zeaal (SPREAD TRUTH!)
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To: NautiNurse
Damn, I hope the BAMD is wrong. It puts her right on top of Miami.

Good thing I left my shutters up after Rita. After Katrina caught me off-guard without shutters, I put them up for Rita and decided to leave them there for the rest of the season.

32 posted on 10/18/2005 8:09:03 AM PDT by laz (They can bus 'em to the polls, but they can't bus 'em out of the path of a Cat 5 hurricane.)
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To: NautiNurse
Woohoo!


33 posted on 10/18/2005 8:10:49 AM PDT by Hatteras
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To: zeaal
Yeah, it's supposed to get picked up by the westerlies and shoot across Florida.
34 posted on 10/18/2005 8:10:59 AM PDT by Termite_Commander (Warning: Cynical Right-winger Ahead)
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To: Termite_Commander

Oh crud, right over my mom's house again! This time through the backyard!


35 posted on 10/18/2005 8:13:26 AM PDT by Ol' Sox
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To: mewzilla

LOL, same here....Gee, I think we've bonded :)


36 posted on 10/18/2005 8:13:46 AM PDT by Guenevere (God bless our military!...and God bless the President of the United States!)
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To: blam; laz
Looks like you should pull your shutters out of storage. Use those 'flowery' ones I like so much, lol.

Ah yes, the ones I painted to minimize the "crack house" appearance in 2004...


37 posted on 10/18/2005 8:14:14 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: Hatteras

There is that (though I don't know if you wanted to post the "Woohoo to NN; she's on the northern side of the cone of doom).


38 posted on 10/18/2005 8:14:51 AM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: NautiNurse
Looks like it may come in at the same area as Charley. Look out Fort Myers/Punta Gorda/Venice! Hopefully the wind currents will steer it fast out to the Atlantic. I'm getting weary.
39 posted on 10/18/2005 8:15:16 AM PDT by poobear (Imagine a world of liberal silence!)
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To: NautiNurse

40 posted on 10/18/2005 8:16:00 AM PDT by SheLion (Trying to make a life in the BLUE state of Maine!)
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