Posted on 10/17/2005 7:59:53 AM PDT by Travis McGee
The October Newsletter The Leaves Won't Be The Only Thing To Fall! Enrico Orlandini Lasco Report 17 Oct, 2005
We're heading into that time of year where the word "crash" tends to command a bit more respect among market specialists, i.e., the months of October and/or November. Maybe it's just a coincidence, but I see an ominous cloud on the horizon. Actually, I see a large mass of clouds and they're as black as night. Anyone who's invested in the stock market over the last three or four years has little or nothing to show for it and, if you're still invested, you can't be feeling too comfortable right now. In short, a simple saving account would have been a better investment. Then again, when you buy into a market that's selling at 20 times earnings and paying a miniscule 1.75% dividend, what can you expect? Two weeks ago I warned my clients about the "probability", not the possibility, of a crash. What did I see that made me so worried that I would crawl out on a limb all by myself? Frankly, there were and still are any number of warning signals, and I would like to delve into some of them in the space provided below.
The first such warning sign comes from the market itself. Focus your attention on the following daily chart of the cash DJIA and follow along:
Lots of charts and analysis follows, HERE
Indeed, and that's for those that had the gold sent to them and not stored at the "companies vaults". ;)
Real SEAL, a LONG time ago. Class 105, 1979. Now I live a bit north of Seaworld, in "Baja La Jolla," (PB).
Do you think all of the key market fundamentals are the same as a year ago?
Yes, the 70s. The best thing to have going into the 70s was a really nice house with a big, big fixed rate mortgage. You then had the pleasure of sticking it to the bank by paying them with money that was losing 20% of it's value a year, at some points, while taking the full appreciation on your house. Lots of people bought houses in the seventies for $40,000 and sold them in the 90s for $500,000 or more.
re: missed one.
Illegal Invasion ??
hey Travis,
if you have a ping list - count me in.
There have been quite a few good comments from folks who obviously know the score, good folks to know when it gets dicey.
Regards,
Lurking'
Loss of manufacturing base
We manufacture more than ever.
Perhaps in dollar amount but manufacturing as a percentage of GDP has been declining year over year.
Failed educational system
Okay, but not economic.
A well educated population inovates and retains/produces jobs. A poorly educated population does not.
Debased fiat currency and corresponding inflation
Debased compared to what? And what is the inflation rate?
How about the Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, the Euro, and Gold to name a few the past 5 years. Today's PPI numbers show inflation for producers was up 1.9% last month... 6.9% since last year.
Increasing resource scarcity
Like what?
Copper, oil, and natural gas.
--------------------------------------------
One more economic fundamental that does not look good:
Record levels of outstanding debt.
I will, but I try to use it only rarely. I also have a gun thread ping list I'll put you on.
No they are not. But this article, in one form or another, is published every fall.
So, what is the ideal % of GDP? What harm is caused by manufacturing growing more slowly than services?
How about the Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, the Euro, and Gold to name a few the past 5 years.
You have any sources? And if true, what damage has it caused?
Record levels of outstanding debt.
Be more specific. Actual numbers would be nice. Thanks.
Candian Dollar: c_cad
Japanese Yen: c_jpy
Swiss Franc: c_chf
Euro: c_eur
Gold: 38099902
Record credit market debt outstanding is shown as a percentage of GDP in this chart:
Total Credit Market Debt since 1952 in chart format can be found here: Chart
Total Credit Market Debt since 1952 in data format can be found here: Data
Okay, so if the dollar sank against those currencies, (haven't had a chance to look at the charts yet) what has the damage to our economy been? Shrinking GDP, high unemployment or is it something more subtle?
Seems pretty clear to me. Government, corporate, and household debt are all included in Total Credit Market Debt and it is over 3x GDP...$38 Trillion. I'll let you find the breakdowns if you wish.
Without a similar chart showing government, corporate and household assets, it's difficult to see if we're over-leveraged.
I'll let you find the breakdowns if you wish.
If you could that would be great. Thanks.
Why ?
$37 trillion of debt versus $900 trillion of assets isn't as scary as $37 trillion of debt and $35 trillion of assets.
What are you talking about ? Please explain and provide sources as you have requested of others.
I wanted to know what government, corporate and household assets were. You asked why. Obviously debt alone tells you nothing about leverage.
Please explain and provide sources as you have requested of others.
I thought you were looking for the asset breakdown? I have none.
Sorry, I misread your previous post. I thought you were going to find assets. Obviously your point about record debts means nothing without info about our assets. Nice try though.
Wow you are pulling things out of the anusphere. The Debt to GDP ratio is 300+%. It is the highest it has ever been. This debt props up the asset bubble. The debt needs to be repaid from income... aka GDP. If you would like to provide a link to asset values being larger than the debt values I'll gladly look at it.
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