We're doomed. Doomed! DOOMED!!!
Posted on 09/28/2005 4:09:54 PM PDT by hubbubhubbub
For over four decades, observant and open-minded individuals have become deeply concerned about the future of our great nation. They refused to accept the rosy official and media testimony regarding our nation's fiscal and monetary integrity. Similarly, they did not believe the negative rhetoric directed towards gold. Just as these independent thinking and far-sighted people recognized that one plus one would always equal two they also knew that no one, nor no nation, could create something from nothing. Throughout this period they witnessed the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve banking system work together to create U.S. dollars from thin air, in order to finance our growing national budget deficits. It was not only obvious to these people that inflation must result from our government's actions, but that numerous economic and financial distortions would occur and likely ultimately spawn a serious economic decline. They had learned from history of the damage that accrued to the lives of the common man, whenever a nation debased its currency.
Stable prices within an economy are produced when there is a balance between the purchasing media in its financial system, and the amount of goods and services offered on its markets. However, when the dollar value of the available items and services remain essentially constant, but a country's money stock is increased, the additional monetary units will over time act to bid up their domestic prices. This is what has occurred in America during the past six decades, since the U.S. left the Gold Standard. It is the underlying cause of the loss of the dollar's purchasing power.
According to extensive research performed by the outstanding American Institute for Economic Research (AIER, Great Barrington, Massachusetts), "For roughly 150 years after the Mint Act of 1792, by which Congress established and defined the Nation's currency, the purchasing power of the dollar fluctuated in a relatively narrow range. At the end of World War II, the price level was close to the peaks (and the purchasing power close to the troughs) reached after the War of 1812, the Civil War, and World War I".
During the preponderance of this period the dollar was defined as being worth a fixed amount of gold. Under the Gold Standard, dollars could not be created unless there was sufficient gold held by our government to redeem them. Further, during most of this era gold and dollars could be readily exchanged for one another by our government. This all changed with the signing of the Bretton Woods Agreement in1944.
After 1944, the dollar's purchasing power began to decline. This accelerated after President Nixon "closed the gold window" in 1971. With the stroke of a pen he severed the final link of the dollar to gold. Later, in the words of the AIER, "By 2000, the dollar had lost more than 90% of its original purchasing power."
The term "doom and gloomers" was likely coined by a member of the Establishment. It was done in an effort to discredit those who recognized this condition as well as their beliefs. This occurred because the "doom and gloomers"recognized early that the excessive issuance of dollars effectively cheapened those that already existed, and would lead to a number of damaging results. First, it would create inflation. Next, the higher prices and inflated money supply would excessively stimulate the economy. These events, in turn, would foster a number of other economic and financial distortions. Businesses and individuals would make poor economic and financial decisions. They would base their actions upon an economy which was artificially stimulated by excessive monetary creation. Their judgements and actions would be predicated upon fleeting, exceptional business conditions that were largely created as the newly issued dollars worked their way through the system. Businesses would expand their workforces, factories and products. Additionally, they and individuals would enter into far greater debt than was truly warranted because they believed that the "good times" would last longer than they should. The excessive monetary creation, in turn, would ultimately destroy the dollar's value on the world's markets, and further exacerbate the price inflation within our borders as the cost rose of imported goods.
Now, conditions have worsened to a far greater extent that anyone could have dreamed possible prior to the 1990's. Each recession since the Great Depression was met with greater amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus in order to extricate the economy from any economic reversal. Whenever the economy began to flounder, the money supply would be rapidly expanded and interest rates would be cut by the Fed, while the government enacted tax reductions and spending increases. Importantly, during the past several years, the Fed appears to have become hell-bent upon creating as many dollar credits as are necessary. This, in order to prevent the economy from lapsing into any sort of extended or even minor recession, for fear of it snow-balling into something of far greater consequence.
Finally, the "doom and gloomers" are being joined by other voices. However, now they are emanating from the Establishment! Comments and declarations are now being espoused by those who are not only highly respected and authoritative, but who also hold among the most powerful positions in the world's governing and cooperative bodies.
This morning's New York Times contained an article entitled "I.M.F. Warns of Imbalance in World Consumption". The piece contained quotes from a recent IMF report. It began with "The United States is likely to experience slower economic growth next year, and its rapidly rising foreign debt is at the heart of dangerous global imbalances...". The Times then continued and stated, "The fund said that global economic growth had become too dependent on a handful of countries, led by the United States, that consume far more than they produce. That imbalance, it warned in its semiannual World Economic Outlook, could lead to a wrenching correction".
For the International Monetary Fund to use phrases such as "dangerous global imbalances" and "wrenching correction" when referring to the possible outcome of today's global economic and financial condition, is truly unprecedented! They could have used far more subtle terms, as they have in the past to get their point across, if they did not deeply believe that the world's economy was at great risk.
The Times article went on: "In an evident reference to the United States, with its big budget deficits and relentless consumer spending, the I.M.F. warned that the world's consumption is 'fueled by increasingly unsustainable fiscal stimulus, as well as housing prices that are ignoring the laws of gravity".
With these strong statements of concern, if not outright fear, I believe that the IMF is sending a scathing message. It is not only to the United States but to the rest of the world, that the worst fears of the "doom and gloomers" not only have validity, but that they may come to fruition if major structural changes in the U.S. do not occur. This stern warning was for the United States to limit its dangerous monetary expansion, increase its taxes, and force its consumers to reign in their wonton spending. Or, not only the U.S. but the world would suffer the consequences.
These alarming statements by one of the world's preeminent organizations followed a similar statement by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank, Alan Greenspan. In a recent speech, Mr. Greenspan discussed the historical precedent that resulted whenever investors became overly excited about certain investments. This occurred when buyers threw caution to the wind and ignored the risks produced by their actions, by driving prices to unsupportable high levels. He stated , "Thus, this vast increase in the market value of asset claims is in part the indirect result of investors accepting lower compensation for risk. Such an increase in market value is too often viewed by market participants as structural and permanent. ... But what they perceive as newly abundant liquidity can readily disappear. Any onset of increased investor caution elevates risk premiums and, as a consequence, lowers asset values and promotes the liquidation of the debt that supported higher asset prices. This is the reason that history has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums."
Greenspan, with his statement, "vast increase in the market value", is referring to the current enormous overvaluation of the housing market and, I believe, stock prices. He appears in total agreement with the IMF statement that, "housing prices that are defying the laws of gravity". Do you remember Greenspan's famous 1996, "irrational exuberance" speech regarding the stock market? At that time, the Dow Industrials were in the mid-6000 range. Do you believe that he views the market as being less overvalued and less dangerous with the Dow today in the mid 10,000's?
Greenspan's reference to "history has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums" is his "fed-speak", sugar-coated fashion of addressing the likely severe and damaging economic fall-out when price levels return to normal.
I believe that these unnerving observations by Alan Greenspan and the IMF are likely the tip of the iceberg! As time passes, I feel that similar statements will be espoused by more and more conventional economists and government officials. They will be preparing the world for a potential economic melt-down that was created by our nation's prolonged, egregious, deficit spending campaign, and the creation of the enormous amount of dollar credits that they fostered.
The voices of the "doom and gloomers" will be increasingly joined by those emanating from mainstream America. They will be vindicated! However, just as all Americans benefited from the higher standard of living generated by the decades-long artificially induced boom, we may all have to suffer the consequences when the business cycle turns down, and the contrived boom turns to bust.
I realize that my analysis of the comments by the IMF and Alan Greenspan are disconcerting. However, I believe that it is better to face the reality and truth of a situation and prepare for its consequences, than to put one's head in the sand and ignore its reality and its potential damaging effects. My hope is to help the reader recognize our nation's precarious condition, and prepare for the difficult times that lie somewhere ahead.
It must be-- they're always so crabby
Eureka!
We're doomed. Doomed! DOOMED!!!
Maybe he's had no growth for the last decade. It could explain a few things.
Its the average growth rate of M3 published by the Fed.
And its insolvent banking system.
Just look at the most recent Fed figures on household net worth - $50 trillion - with only about 20% of that attributable to homeowner equity. The average American household has about 57% equity in their home. Americans' total debts, including mortgages, are dwarfed by their liquid assets.
Yes, we have lots of 401K chock full of "high quality" Fannie Mae bonds, money market funds full of Fannie repos, and stock in Fannie's derivative counterparties like Citigroup and JPM. We have massive equity in homes whose value is inflated by GSE money pumps.
Hey, when was the last time FNM posted reliable earnings? And when do you reckon commodity prices are going to stop rising?
Doomers are making money on commodities and shorting the GSEs.
Oddly Bulls are making money too.
Someone's got to be wrong.
“This guy is an optometrist? WTF?”
He sees the future ... I guess!
Go figure.
Mathematical formula for your 8% inflation rate.
" In the long run, were all dead..."
John Maynard Keyes
Gosh, I'm worried now. /sarcasm
"This stern warning was for the United States to limit its dangerous monetary expansion, increase its taxes, and force its consumers to reign in their wonton spending."
What the blue blazes is "wonton" spending? Buying up Chinese restraunts recklessly?
I object to this formula as it has no predictive value.
I'd prefer to just use the empirical data offered here
As you can see 10 years ago m3 stood at 4576 and today it is 9874, roughly an 8% per year growth.
I'd be crabby too if I bet on (and hoped for) the worst to happen - and then it didn't. What a grim way to live.
I believe you when you said M3 grew at 8% a year. I asked you what inflation rate was caused by that 8% M3 growth rate. You said 8%.
Please show me the formula that turns M3 growth into inflation. Thanks.
"In constant dollars our family income purchasing power is less now than 50 years ago. That's why husband and wife must both work. Please get some economics education."
Well, *your* family income may be down, but the *average* family income is way up.
http://www.economywatch.com/world_economy/usa/
"The US has the largest and most technologically powerful economy in the world, with a per capita Gross National income of $37,610, (2003) this figure is significantly higher in comparison to that of other developed countries."
You think per capita income and family income is lower on a real basis than 50 years ago, ie 1955??!?? Before microwave ovens, cell phones, PCs, the interstate highways, etc. you had more purchasing power? back when color TVs didnt even exist, let alone 36" colr TVs that can be had for under $1000?
If you dispute my claim that we are better off now, show me the stats to prove it.
"This stern warning was for the United States to limit its dangerous monetary expansion, increase its taxes, and force its consumers to reign in their wonton spending."
LOL.... Sounds like the IMF prescription for China.
I can see the central bankers now ... "No Soup for you!"
Ah, sorry, as I see it, the growth of the money supply *is* the inflation rate.
Price stability is an entirely different matter. The effects of inflation on prices are neither instantaneous or homogeneous nor predictable in my opinion which is one of many reasons the politburo should not be trying to to manipulate the economy on its estimation of the literally chimerical price level.
Shouldn't this have been prefaced by a tinfoil hat alert or some such?
So if you were in charge, instead of the politburo attempting to centrally manage and manipulate the economy, the ideal money supply would remain constant? Are you saying M3 growth equals (true, Adam Selene, not fake politburo)CPI growth?
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