LIVE THREAD: Polish parliamentary elections 2005

[Lukasz]

Following are profiles of main political parties:

CIVIC PLATFORM (PO) Formed by the liberal wing of the anti-communist Solidarity movement, Civic Platform is the biggest opposition party in the current left-dominated parliament. The party promises tax cuts, deregulation, streamlined bureaucracy, gradual fiscal tightening and more flexible labour laws to spur investment and growth needed to create more jobs. The cornerstone of its economic plan is a single 15-percent personal income, corporate and VAT tax rate. Leaders: Jan Rokita, 46, candidate for prime minister; Donald Tusk, 48, leader and top presidential candidate. Latest ratings: 29-34 percent. Latest results: 2001 parliamentary polls -- 12.7 percent, 2004 European Parliament elections -- 24.1 pct.

LAW AND JUSTICE (PiS) Formed in 2001 by twin brothers Jaroslaw and Lech Kaczynski, conservative Solidarity activists. They say none of the governments of the past 16 years managed to break up the web of informal, often corrupt ties linking the old guard with new business and political elites. The party espouses conservative social values, highlighting the role of family, patriotism and Poland's Christian heritage. It admires the western European welfare state model, promising a stronger safety net for the poor, tax breaks for families and investment incentives. In the run-up to elections PiS courted both the ultra Catholic right by questioning the rights of homosexuals and the traditional leftist electorate. Leaders: Jaroslaw and Lech Kaczynski, 56; Ludwik Dorn, 51 Latest ratings: 29-34 percent, Latest results: 2001 parliamentary polls -- 9.5 percent, 2004 European Parliament elections -- 12.7 percent.

DEMOCRATIC LEFT ALLIANCE (SLD) The current ruling party is the political heir of the once all-powerful communist party. Once led by outgoing President Aleksander Kwasniewski, it transformed itself into the Western-style Social Democrats but never shook off the ex-communist stigma. The SLD's latest spell in power brought Poland into the European Union, but a string of sleaze scandals marred its rule and failure to curb unemployment slashed its 41 percent support in the last elections to single digits. Leaders: Wojciech Olejniczak, 31, Grzegorz Napieralski, 31 Latest ratings: 4-8 percent Latest results: 2001 parliamentary polls -- 41 percent, 2004 European Parliament elections -- 9.4 percent

SELF-DEFENCE The party is a brainchild of former pig farmer Andrzej Lepper, 51, who rose to prominence in the 1990s organising roadblocks to demand higher farm subsidies and defend farmers who, like himself, defaulted on bank loans. The party shot to the top of rankings in the runup to Poland's European Union entry last year but lost ground after Poland's upbeat first year in the bloc. Leaders: Andrzej Lepper, 51 Latest ratings: 8-12 percent Latest results: 2001 parliamentary polls -- 10.2 percent, 2004 European Parliament elections -- 10.8 percent.

LEAGUE OF POLISH FAMILES (LPR) Formed in 2001, the party has opposed Poland's EU membership and says the Polish nation must be defended against the forces of globalisation and international institutions. In overwhelmingly Catholic Poland, the party mainly appeals to ultra-conservative and xenophobic elements in Polish society. Its youth arm, Pan-Polish Youth, has been linked by mainstream media to local skinheads and anti-Semitic incidents. Leaders: Roman Giertych, 34, Maciej Giertych, 69, presidential candidate Latest ratings: 5-11 percent Latest results: 2001 parliamentary polls -- 7.9 percent, 2004 European Parliament elections -- 15.9 percent

Two favorites, PO and PiS will form center-right coalition. Winner will take the PM post.

Last poll (23 Sep):

PiS 33%
PO 28,7%
Samoobrona 10,3%
LPR 8,3%
SLD 7,6%
PSL 5,3%

election threshold: 5%

[AdmSmith]

PSL is very close to be exluded (5 % treshold)

[Ciexyz]

Most interesting. I know which one I'd be voting with! Always fun to read threads like this.

[Ciexyz]

To an American observor like myself, Poland has come a long way since the early days of Solidarity. Kudos to them for having honest elections.

[lizol]

Bad, bad, bad!

I expected SLD to get much less, or even to get out of the parliament. And now it looks like they will be the main opposition party.

The other thing is, that PO-PiS coalition may no tbe able to change the constitution.

[lizol]

Update:

SLD and Self-defence - both 10%

[AdmSmith]

I guess these figures are based on exit-poll, what about voters abroad. I guess PO has a higher proportion of these.

[REactor]

Situation as for now is not very good. I hoped PO would gain such a majority that they could form a governement without PIS. Now it seems there is a draw. The situation is worse and more schizophrenic than in Germany. There are less differences (especially regarding economy) between SPD and CDU/CSU (both more or less socialist) than between PO and PIS. But in Germany they are two rival parties while in Poland PO and PIS are supposed to be closest allies. If those first results were true it is a sad day for the Serenissima Res Publica of Poland.

[Lukasz]

[AdmSmith]

PO is more like FDP in Germany, but you had a very optimistic view if you hoped for a single majority for PO.

Earlier today I saw Kaczynski on TV saying that the did not expect any problem in working together with PO.

[REactor]

Actually two weeks ago there were polls published that gave PO about 40% of the popular vote. So, according to Polish election system they would get more than 50% of seats in the Seym. I know, never trust the pollsters, but it came as a shock to me that they got only about 25%. Could the pollsters be wrong by 15 percentage points? Is it at all possible?

[lizol]

I think that POPiS coalition will bemore like CDU - FDP in Germany, however PO will be much, much stronger partner to PiS, than FDP to CDU.

[lizol]

Yes, it is - keep in mind, that mass-media has been very friendly to PO.

So it was en vogue to admit, that one was going to vote for them.

[AdmSmith]

I think that PiS did a populist Schroeder and frightened the population that a flat 15 percent tax would benefit the rich at the expense of the poor. (i.e. the same as in Germany)

I guess that Tusk will have a better result than PO in the presidential election.

[Lukasz]

I expected SLD to get much less, or even to get out of the parliament. And now it looks like they will be the main opposition party.

In Poland there is still many hardcore leftist who would vote for them no matter in how many corruption scandals they would be involved.

[Lukasz]

I guess these figures are based on exit-poll, what about voters abroad. I guess PO has a higher proportion of these.

You are probably right but this isn’t mayor aspect. I think that voters aboard have minimal impact on the general results.

[lizol]

Oh, guys, give it up!

It's obvious, that all that socialist crap was supposed to show P&S as an attractive party for voters with leftist leaning (which turned out to be effective).

This is going to be quite equalized coalition. Both parties will have to step back from their initial stance.

I'm pretty optimistic.

[Lukasz]

The situation is worse and more schizophrenic than in Germany. There are less differences (especially regarding economy) between SPD and CDU/CSU (both more or less socialist) than between PO and PIS.

I don’t agree with you. SPD and CDU/SCU are the main opponents there. We knew it, from the beginning that PO and PiS will form the coalition. I think that PiS was very populist in the last days of the campaign and now they will work more realistically.

[lizol]

Yeah - there used to be almost 2 million people in communist party in Poland.

All of them + communist army, police, and security service officers + their families still make pretty large group.

[REactor]

You remember the last elections between Walesa and Kwasniewski? Walesa was in the lead in the first hours, but the next day it appeared that he lost. It was because Walesa's supporters were mostly conservative churchgoers who went to voting stations immediately after the morning and midday masses. I hope it may be the same situation now. PIS was heavily supported by Radio Maryja in recent weeks, while great part of PO supporters are either lukewarm Catholics (and lukewarm Catholics don't go to morning masses) or nonreligious at all, and such people tend to vote in the late afternoon hours. The first exit polls are based on the results from the first hours of voting. I was in the Church in 12.00, then went to vote for PO, but I'm still not losing hope.:))

[Lukasz]

Btw news of the day, a bit off-topic, beautiful Polish girls second time in a row won European volleyball champions title beating Italy 3:1 in the final game! Viva Polska!