You can do better? Storms change that's why they call it "fore"casting. Rita spun up faster and worse than Katrina. She had favorable shear and water temps up until yesterday mid day. She had all the markings of another catastrophic hurricane.
Also, even if she hits as only a Category 2 she's pushing a Category 5 induced storm surge. There's no where for the water to go but inland. The threat from hurricanes has always been from storm surge and inland flooding. Floyd was a 2 (corect me if I"m wrong on that) when it hit North Carolina and dozens drowned due to severe flooding.
"Over-reaction" is something arm-chair quarterbacks spwe about when they are dissapointed about wind speeds and body counts.
new placemark.