Ooops, Sorry
HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005
LOCATION A B C D E
GALVESTON TX 8 17 1 X 26
FREEPORT TX 7 16 1 X 24
PORT O CONNOR TX 4 11 2 1 18
PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2
CORPUSCHRISTI TX 1 5 1 2 9
PENSACOLA FL X X 1 3 4
BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 2 2
MOBILE AL X 1 2 4 7
GULFPORT MS X 3 3 3 9
BURAS LA 5 6 1 2 14
NEW ORLEANS LA 3 8 2 2 15
NEW IBERIA LA 6 13 1 1 21
PORT ARTHUR TX 4 20 1 1 26
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM FRI TO 1AM SAT
C FROM 1AM SAT TO 1PM SAT
D FROM 1PM SAT TO 1PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
There seems to me, to be a serious bug in the program that generates these "probability" displays.
Most certainly, the C column here is totally wrong, and the "1" actually means 100%. The D column is wrong, too. Other strike areas that are dead center of this track show the same false report. I really wouldn't trust this data as being real meaningful.
GALVESTON TX 8 17 1 X 26
...
"C FROM 1AM SAT TO 1PM SAT"