[dirtboy]

It will just continue to slowly weaken.......by landfall, 115 mph winds probably.

However, it will probably resemble Ivan's landfall in that it has already put a lot of water in motion as a Cat 5/Cat 4. So the surge will be more like a Cat 4 than a Cat 3 - just as Rita's surge was Cat 5 even though it weakened to a Cat 4 at landfall in Mississippi.

A good rule of thumb is that a hurricane that is intensifying at landfall has more wind and less surge than its strength would indicate (Hugo, Charley) - and a storm that is weakening at landfall will have more surge than anticipated (Ivan, Katrina).

[cgk]

Computer models (23kb):

Anyone know how accurate BAM is?

[rwfromkansas]

good point....the surge will still be awful