Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part V

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Category Four Hurricane Rita continues to move toward landfall along the northwest Gulf of Mexico shoreline. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations continue across Texas and Louisiana coastal areas. Lake Charles LA is providing evacuations by bus for residents who have no transportation.

Traffic gridlock in the greater Houston area was compounded by gasoline stations without fuel, long lines at those stations still carrying fuel, and record breaking temperatures on the first day of autumn.

Offshore drilling platforms and rigs, as well as oil refineries, petrochemical and natural gas plants are in the path of the storm. Wave heights recorded by buoy have exceeded 38 feet. The refineries threatened by Hurricane Rita are on higher ground than those affected by flooding from Katrina. As a result, speculation abounds regarding future prices for winter heating fuel and gasoline.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KPRC-TV/DT Houston - KPRC-TV/DT Houston - http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx
KPLC-TV Lake Charles KPLC Streaming
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
Beaumont TX evac Routes
Lake Charles/Southwest LA Evacuation Map
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[fishntex]

Lyon on TWC is noting the westward jog. He entertained a possible landfall west of Galveston if this jog continues. Noting catastrophic storm surges for Galveston and the bay.

[Flyer]

Riding the Rita Roller coaster.

[NCjim]

Hi, Peach - I think I-45 and I-10 but not 290 - needed for emergency vehicles. Last I heard if I recall correctly.

[Rte66]

That means I used to live up the street from *you* on Palmetto. I liked to walk down Chelsea to my friends' house on Pine. Pretty street.

[Arizona Carolyn]

I see a lot of land that would make a great city park!

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

Volunteer are passing out water in the Houston area for folks trying to evac. They are using metro buses. Hot damn. The officials in Texas know how to manage stuff. I'm impressed!

[jeffers]

6.48 miles, perpendicular, off the 1700 track. Three and change an hour ago.

Both westing.

[Tuxedo]

Not sure the waters are all that cooler at the coast. It has been abnormally HOT in south Texas for late September. In the 95-105 degree range all week.

[VRWCTexan]

Thanks - I have been praying hard for 3 days straight that Rita will at least drop to a "3"

[Arizona Carolyn]

His question about why they would foam a runway last night was the ultimate. Couldn't believe it when he said he'd never heard of such a thing.

[sinkspur]

Yes. I-45 went contraflow around 2:00 and, just now on CNN, the traffic is running at the speed limit (65 mph). So the congestion is cleared up.

[Alia]

From Isaac's Storm: Galveston, 1900

The storm path of Galveston, 1900 with estimated wind speeds of 150 mph

One of my favorite clips from the book about SWELLS (explained).

A graphic, step by step explanation of WHAT IS A HURRICANE?

[steveegg]

That's not a good sign (VRWCTexan, you might want to ask jeffers that question).

[bwteim]

28 mi

[commish]

Total SWAG here - But I will say 20-25 NM eye if she does not start another ERC. Going to stick with my earlier 140 MPH wind prediction, but my Cameron Parrish, LA call is starting to look iffy. I am beginning to think Larry Cosgrove and Joe Bastardi may be on to something and that a Galveston-Port Arthur solution is becoming more likely. HOwever, I will stick with my LA call even though I am starting to have my doubts.

[VRWCTexan]

Also taking on board the buses anyone stranded along the highways

[jeffers]

My brother and I crawled into our snowmobile suits and hiked up to a local hangout, some modular homes, the kind you stack up with a crane, furnished and abandoned.

We were the only ones there.

[Zacs Mom]

Early this evening I-45 was in contraflow mode at least as far up as Buffalo!

[alancarp]

I've been watching Joe B. forecasts for the whole season -- I'm a subscriber to his site -- and he's been consistently saying 'Texas' for about 10 days -- since before Rita got named. During the season, he's certainly been right a lot more than wrong, and definitely right when it has mattered. We're getting close to the end, now, and right now you've gotta say that anyone expecting a hit anywhere from Galveston and Port Arthur is "right" -- you can't really hold anyone to a standard of better than a 40 mile error.

That all being said, I'm trying right now to find a GFDL model output -- I found a 48-hours-to-go model chart for Katrina from that model that was EXACTLY right. Unfortunately, Accuweather's site is whacked right now.

[jeffers]

I honestly don't know.

I don't gamble unless I'm "the house".