Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part V

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Category Four Hurricane Rita continues to move toward landfall along the northwest Gulf of Mexico shoreline. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations continue across Texas and Louisiana coastal areas. Lake Charles LA is providing evacuations by bus for residents who have no transportation.

Traffic gridlock in the greater Houston area was compounded by gasoline stations without fuel, long lines at those stations still carrying fuel, and record breaking temperatures on the first day of autumn.

Offshore drilling platforms and rigs, as well as oil refineries, petrochemical and natural gas plants are in the path of the storm. Wave heights recorded by buoy have exceeded 38 feet. The refineries threatened by Hurricane Rita are on higher ground than those affected by flooding from Katrina. As a result, speculation abounds regarding future prices for winter heating fuel and gasoline.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KPRC-TV/DT Houston - KPRC-TV/DT Houston - http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx
KPLC-TV Lake Charles KPLC Streaming
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
Beaumont TX evac Routes
Lake Charles/Southwest LA Evacuation Map
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 23
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 23, 2005

 
Rita is completing its eyewall replacement cycle this morning...as
the last report from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
showed that the inner 15 N mi wide eye had dissipated and a single
33 N mi wide eye existed.  Maximum flight-level winds at 700 mb in
the northeastern quadrant are 125-130 kt...which helps support an
initial intensity of 120 kt.  The aircraft data showed that another
wind maxima has formed about 60 N mi from the center...which might
be the start of another outer eyewall.  The latest central pressure
reported by the aircraft is 927 mb.

Rita is moving between 300-305 degrees at 8-9 kt.  Rawinsonde data
at 00z indicates that the mid-level ridge is still present over
Texas.  This feature should move eastward during the next 24-48
hr...allowing the current northwestward motion to become more
northerly.  Track guidance is now clustered about a landfall on the
Upper Texas coast in roughly 30 hr...with the model track being
spread between San Luis Pass and Sabine Pass.  The forecast track
up to landfall is essentially an update of the previous package. 
After landfall...the guidance become very divergent as high
pressure build to the west and possibly north of Rita.  Given the
spread...the forecast track will call for little motion after 72 hr
just as the previous forecast did.  This stalling will pose a
serious risk of very heavy rainfall well inland.

The intensity forecast is still problematic.  Since Rita has
completed the eyewall replacement cycle and is over the warm eddy
of The Loop current...there is a chance it could strengthen during
the next 12 hr.  After that...it should moved north of the eddy...
possibly start another eyewall cycle...and possibly experience
increasing southerly shear.  The intensity forecast thus calls for
a slight increase in strength in 12 hr...follwed by slight
weakening.  An alternative scenario is that Rita does not
strengthen...and gradually weakens due to shear until landfall. 
This could happen if the shear reaches the 25 kt values forecast by
the GFS and SHIPS models.

Forecaster Beven

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      23/0900z 26.8n  91.0w   120 kt
 12hr VT     23/1800z 27.6n  92.2w   125 kt
 24hr VT     24/0600z 28.9n  93.6w   120 kt
 36hr VT     24/1800z 30.4n  94.6w    80 kt...inland
 48hr VT     25/0600z 31.5n  95.0w    45 kt...inland
 72hr VT     26/0600z 33.0n  94.5w    30 kt...inland
 96hr VT     27/0600z 33.0n  94.5w    25 kt...inland
120hr VT     28/0600z 33.0n  94.5w    25 kt...inland dissipating

[TXBSAFH]

I am back, we were not able to get out so we are bunkering in place. We are at my folks in a house that has taken a cat 3 with no damage.

[Jalapeno]

See post 1564 if you are having second thoughts. 59 to Victoria and then points South and West

[THEUPMAN]

Do you know what the tides will be when Rita makes land fall?
high ? low?

[NautiNurse]

we were not able to get out so we are bunkering in place.

Not the first time I've heard this since last night...How long did you sit in traffic?

[Carolinamom]

Good morning, NN. You are doing an exceptionally good job w/these hurricane threads. Thank you. I've been wondering though, WHEN do you sleep?

[NautiNurse]

I have a tide chart. Don't have a good fix on landfall time or location yet.

[TXBSAFH]

To %$^#@!@ long. With 2 2 1/2 month old babies no less. Next time we are going to do thing different. Besides we go t a call on our cell phones from the Red Roof Inn we had reservations at. The saaid they would not honor them, they were already full. We made those reservations Monday.

[NautiNurse]

Snuck away for sleep during the night. Just finished a work project (and coffee). Wide awake now.

Thanks for your good thoughts and support.

[NautiNurse]

OMG!

[Flyer]

Welcome home.

Probably one of the few times you didn't want to hear that. Prayers for a safe hunker!

[Dog]

Morning everyone....only here briefly before heading off to work...whats the latest.

[NautiNurse]

Updates 1697 forward.

[ravinson]

Thanks for the streaming local TV links. I like the Lake Charles crew. They take lots of calls from people with traffic info and fear in their voices as they ask about the safety of their situations.

Southwest Louisiana sounds like a horrible place to be in a hurricane -- lots of swampy, sinking land with tidal water creeping up from the south. I wonder how long they'll be able to stay on the air when they get hammered by Rita's dirty side.

[justa-hairyape]

Methane blowouts are also a problem. I think human activity at worse is just a contributing factor, but not the primary factor. The primary radiation that gets absorbed by the water within the earths oceans is infrared light. That wavelength of light gets absorbed in the upper surface layer of the worlds oceans. I really would like to see studies that analyze radiation (light) with more accuracy. To say that light from the sun has increased, is a general statement that is meaningless. What type of light increased ? Was it an equal increase across all wavelengths. All of these metrics are critical. Yet we have not been measuring the obvious. For example, if UV C radiation increased, it would have no effect on the Worlds Oceans.

[AntiGuv]

It's worth noting that the latest batch of computer models have recentered themselves over Galveston.

[raygun]

URNT12 KNHC 230855
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/08:31:40Z
B. 26 deg 43 min NM
091 deg 00 min W
C. 700 mb 2452 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 130 deg 126 kt
G. 044 deg 022 nm
H. 927 mb
I. 11 C/ 3039 m
J. 16 C/ 3049 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN S
M. C33
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 2118A RITA OB 07>
MAX FL WIND 126 KT NE QUAD 08:25:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 210 / 08 NM FROM FL CNTR
SOUTH EYEWALL OPEN W/BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING IN FROM SW TO SE

This is a translation of the 0330 CDT time hurricane eye message.

I'm assuming the eye is filled w/fog (100% humidity). 8 NM W of CTR at flight level (700mb) of a 33 NM wide eye is found to be 2 Deg. C. warmer then that reported at the fix position. While a truly healthy storm would have at least a 10 degrees differential between inside and outside the eye, Rita at present only has a 5 Deg C differntial. Interesting eyewall feature. Winds arne't too shabby though, and are the highest seen over the last 7 obs. Standard height by the way for the 700mb is 3011 meters. So that should give one an idea how low the pressure acutally is (as the height indicated for FL at 700mb is 2452 meters.

Well, I'm off to catch some winks. Happy Hurricane Day everybody. Don't fret about it, you guys will be fine. What, with all those nice prayers (including mine) sent throneward, "who can be against us, if He be for us?" Oh, yeah, and Rm 8:35-39 too. G'night. ;)

[Dog]

Oh god.

[AntiGuv]

It seems as if the current forecast calls for landfall roughly around 9:00am Saturday, which would bring the surge in with middling-high (but receding) tides.

[NautiNurse]

Thank you! That's exactly what I was trying to find. Was a
bit disturbed by the little Wunderground models that they are
so divergent at this point.