000 WTNT23 KNHC 220227 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 0300Z THU SEP 22 2005 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA... FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA... AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 87.2W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 897 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT.......160NE 140SE 100SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE 200SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 87.2W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.9N 88.7W MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.5N 90.5W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.3N 92.4W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.5N 94.2W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.0N 96.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 33.5N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 35.0N 96.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 87.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART
...Category five Rita continuing to strengthen over the central Gulf of Mexico...
a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Gulf of Mexico coast from Port Mansfield Texas to Cameron Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the Hurricane Watch area Thursday morning.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect on either side of the Hurricane Watch area... from east of Cameron to Grand Isle Louisiana... and from south of Port Mansfield to Brownsville Texas.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northeastern coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the Rio Grande.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of potentially catastrophic Hurricane Rita.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near latitude 24.6 north... longitude 87.2 west or about 570 miles... 915 km... east-southeast of Galveston Texas and about 670 miles... 1080 km...east-southeast of Corpus Christi Texas.
Rita is moving toward the west near 9 mph ...15 km/hr...and this general motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph...280 km/hr...with higher gusts. Rita is a potentially catastrophic category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles...295 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 897 mb...26.49 inches. This means Rita is the third most intense hurricane in terms of pressure in the Atlantic Basin.
Tides are currently running near normal along the Mississippi and Louisiana coasts in the areas affected by Katrina. Tides in those areas will increase up to 3 to 4 feet and be accompanied by large waves over the next 24 hours... and residents there could experience some coastal flooding.
Heavy rains associated with Rita are forecast to begin to affect the western and central Gulf of Mexico coastal areas Thursday night into Friday. Rita is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over the central to Upper Texas coast. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 24 inches will be possible across southern Louisiana... including the New Orleans metropolitan area. After Rita moves inland...total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches will be possible over eastern Texas... and central and eastern Oklahoma during Saturday and Sunday.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...24.6 N... 87.2 W. Movement toward...west near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...175 mph. Minimum central pressure... 897 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Stewart
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It looks like the eastern eyewall will hit Houston. This is NOT good, because of Surge effects.