"NOLA is not in play."
I can take that to the bank coming from you. Have you ever seen such rapid intensification from TS to Cat 5?
Do you see any evidence of that weakness in the high or its shift east that is to allow Rita to go north forming yet?
What is your latest forecast? :)
I think NHC track will go a bit north from where it is now. Unfortunately, Galveston and Houston could be in a very difficult spot. Best case might be having the storm going north of the bay (though, this would be problematic for energy)... anything within 100 miles to the south could be very bad. I fear we will have somewhat of a repeat of what we saw in MS with the surge, even if she weakens a bit.
I think it's good that we have seen such deepening so early in the GOM. It is likely she won't be able to hold this kind of strength for longer than 24 hours. The intensification we have seen in the last 24 hours is very close to a record, if not one.
If she can ramp up to 180-190mph sustained, we could see her come in around 150mph, or higher. There is also the possibility that she weakens a bit, then goes through ERC before landfall. It's tough to say, I think a cat4 is very likely. I guessed 150mph at landfall about 48 hours ago, I don't see much reason to shift from that at this point.