It's not theoretically possible for mb to match wind speed. :p
No way she will hold such strength all the way till landfall IMO. Though, I think she isn;t done strengthening yet. I would not be surprised to see sustained between 180-190 at some point in the next 24 hours.
Even is she weakens back to cat 4, there will likely be another catastrophic storm surge event upcoming.
I am pretty dang confused because mets are talking about cooler waters as she approaches the coast, but I saw a map yesterday and while their were cooler waters near the coast, there were much warmer water, warmer than WHERE SHE IS NOW, closer to the coast so she will have time to restrengthen before landfall after weakening a bit.
Is this not the case? Is there a pool of cooler water right before landfall?
I think it was Fiedler that wrote "The Thermodynamic Speed Limit" for tornadoes, may have been Davies. Good paper, as was "Dynamic Pipes".
We don't have the concentration of urbanized areas on this section of coast that we did in Mississippi, and current tracks put the edge of HF winds right around Galveston and Gas City.
No way to forecast eyewall diameter at this point but assumining Katrina-esque proportions and a Matagorda landfall, look for primary surge damage from between Palacios on the SW extent, over to Galveston on the NE.
You'd expect secondary damage from funneling at Port Lavaca and Gas City, but fortunately Galveston and Gas City are at the far eastern edge of HF winds, based on current projections. Bay City, Lake Jackson, and Freeport, under this model, are looking down the barrel of a shotgun.
Angleton, West Columbia, Sweeney, and Brazonia seem to be high enough to escape surge effect, but they'll see max eyewall winds all the same.
FWIW, projected landfall has wobbled maybe ten miles north and back to its original position over the last 24 hours.