Update: Category 5 Hurricane Rita - Live Thread, Part II

NHC - NOAA ^ | 21 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Category 3 Hurricane Rita became the fifth major hurricane of the 2005 season during the night. Hurricane Rita threaded the needle through the Florida Straits and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Storm damage in the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula was light, with scattered power outages, scattered tornados, and mild to moderate flooding.

Mandatory evacuations are in effect for Galveston County TX and New Orleans. Additional evacuation orders in the Greater Houston Metropolitan Area are anticipated throughout the day.

Crude oil prices reacted as oil producers shut down and evacuated workers from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Oh there's many a "classic" Sheila Jackson Lee quote that has been posted on FR over the years. Of course, Sheila Jackson Lee is also recently on record as saying NOLA should not be forcibly evacuated. Wonder what's she's gonna say about what to do when Rita hits her own district?

[Republican Red]

Is this saying it is headed more southernly towards Corpus Christi?

[JFC]

I just don't see a good dim... they have ruined my trust in any of them. They get their party behind them to do bad things and they blame. I just do not have faith in any dim.

[janetjanet998]

the forecaster is on crack..this thing is deeper then 944 MB..he is usually very conservative...in the discussion he said that Sat estimates now show 140 knots(160 MPH, cat5) but he is waiting for the plane info

[MozartLover]

lol

He thought he was going back to Sam Houston, where he did his AIT, but at the last minute plans were changed.

[zeaal]

Sheila will keep her distance (or if she does make a statement it will be from D.C.) until the storm passes and then will ride into town and scream that President Bush is not doing his job. Just watch and see.

[WoodstockCat]

jj,

How far out of the eye wall are hurricane force winds?
If it jogs south of Houston, what Category force winds will they be getting?

[NautiNurse]

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

About par for the course for Ol' Acorn Head.

[RDTF]

CNN : BREAKING NEWS Houston mayor calls for voluntary evacuations of low-lying areas as Hurricane Rita strengthens in the Gulf. Details soon.

[dirtboy]

OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE PEAKING NEAR 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING WINDS OF NEAR 140 KNOTS.

Well, looks like you were correct, Janet, about the Dvorak scale.

Thanks for that early heads-up - my parents were thinking about not evacuating and I just called up and said it was probably at Cat 5 from the Dvorak estimates, and now they are packing up and will decide whether to leave tomorrow morning.

[NautiNurse]

See post 635

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. The wind field associated with Rita is forecast to expand during the next day or two.

[laz]

I seem to recall the govt. experimenting with cloud seeding back in the 60's without very much favorable results.

They tried seeding them to make the eyewall disintegrate, but then they discovered that the big hurricanes normally replace the eyewall anyway and that the seeding made no difference.

[JFC]

Anyone have a link to a Houston Radio station we can listen to online?

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

New Orleans will get a bunch more rain out of this huge storm if that's the eventual path of Rita.

[BureaucratusMaximus]

The Grundig FR200 receives AM (530-1710 kHz), FM 88-108 MHz and shortwave in two bands: 3.2-7.6 and 9.2-22 MHz. I bought mine at Radio Shack for around $39 (plus tax). Actually I had a Radio Shack gift card and actually "paid" half that. :-)

Did I read the specs on that thing right? 90 seconds of cranking equates to 40-60 minutes of "power"? Thats not bad...when the lights are out and the batteries are dead.

[janetjanet998]

right now 45 miles..but that is forecast to grow to 70..keep in mind its just a forecast..

[Alkhin]

KSEV the Voice

Dan Patrick/Edd Hendee

[Alkhin]

although right now, I think Laura Ingraham is fixin to come on

[numberonepal]

Less than 1% of hurricanes go annular and Rita has a very spiral pattern right now.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that Rita is one of those 1% type of hurricanes. But what folks need to put in perspective is that we have such a very very small sampling of data from GOM storms. We've got good data for the past 100 years, the 100 before that we have some written "professional observation" data, and before that we have little more than anecdotal evidence. The point is that we have no clue whatsoever (save looking at strata in various points along the Gulf Coast) what the cycle of storms is like outside 200 years. When it comes to 500, 1000, or 10000 year cycles, we are in the dark.