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Posted on 09/21/2005 1:36:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
It was VERY hot in that area before the 1900 storm. I mentioned this to Dog Gone the other day.
The high pressure is quite strong, as is the anticyclone over the system.. lots of latent heat.
The water is pretty warm all the way to the coast.. not as warm as parts of the loop, but warm enough to sustain a cat4/5. If she slowed, she might upwell.. I don't think she'll slow much.
bttt
Bless your chevy drivin' heart, WCG.
Why did I have it in my head that you were in California? - or am I all confused?
Be safe and God Bless you and all those about to meet Rita.
LVM
27.49 inches = 931 mb.
I think so too...
let's remember it is right over the LOOP current right now.
As it moves a bit west, the water isn't quite as warm.
There is some hope. But it all depends on just HOW strong she gets....
What's your thoughts? 130? I feel 145 on her and have for the last 48-hours when it comes to landfall. I think the latest Sat images are giving reason to believe eyewall replacement cycle is going on....and if you timed it right she wouldn't be going through one again at landfall...but hours before.
I don't see her weakening beyond 145.
I think it was Fiedler that wrote "The Thermodynamic Speed Limit" for tornadoes, may have been Davies. Good paper, as was "Dynamic Pipes".
We don't have the concentration of urbanized areas on this section of coast that we did in Mississippi, and current tracks put the edge of HF winds right around Galveston and Gas City.
No way to forecast eyewall diameter at this point but assumining Katrina-esque proportions and a Matagorda landfall, look for primary surge damage from between Palacios on the SW extent, over to Galveston on the NE.
You'd expect secondary damage from funneling at Port Lavaca and Gas City, but fortunately Galveston and Gas City are at the far eastern edge of HF winds, based on current projections. Bay City, Lake Jackson, and Freeport, under this model, are looking down the barrel of a shotgun.
Angleton, West Columbia, Sweeney, and Brazonia seem to be high enough to escape surge effect, but they'll see max eyewall winds all the same.
FWIW, projected landfall has wobbled maybe ten miles north and back to its original position over the last 24 hours.
We're about 100 miles from landfall. You can come here but only if you leave the pets at your house, LOL!
I do remember in New Orleans that text messaging back and forth did continue to work for everyone. Cellphones will no doubt be intermittant.
We'll pray for y'all. Is your wife very far along? Hope not.
Also hope your home isn't located somewhere where it will sustain much damage. Being homeless (even temporarily) with 5 little ones has got to be rough! We did it with one child for a couple of weeks and I don't wish to repeat it.
Thanks! Yikes. Rita's a lot lower at the moment, right? Jeez louise.
It was 100 here today too.
Im praying God has mercy on us Texans.
I shudder to think what the coming days may be like for our southern friends without His divine intervention.
It gives me a sick feeling in the gut knowing the potential for destruction.
"Being a Cat 5 and having 4 children with 1 on the way, we will probably be leaving early tomorrow morning for Boerne. I don't know if our house can take 110 mph winds and I am not going to find out."
I dont blame you one bit, being anywhere near landfall isnt something worth testing.
The actual center of the Galveston storm did not pass over Galveston, but to the south.
I don't know.
I don't think she will weaken more than about 25 MPH from her peak.
That, right now, would mean 140 ish.
But I don't think she is done strengthening yet.
Whoa...do I read that to mean it will be high-tide around the time of landfall? I recall landfall late Friday-early Saturday?
general Honore coming up on Brit.
Do you know where?
My wife is 7 months. She has been having contractions because she is pretty stressed out. The house might be able to take the winds but I am not going to find out.
The worst part after Alicia was not having power for 4 days. It was blazing hot 90 degrees + and humid. It was miserable. I can't imagine my pregnant wife or kids being able to put up with that.
Wish I could be there to help you. Rapid City is a long ways from hurricane activity. Most, if not all, of my relatives have evac'ed from the bay area up to Lufkin, Crockett and Palestine..........where my other relatives live.
Prayers to all. This will be a bad one.
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