Hurricane Rita Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 20 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Rita is in the Florida Straits, impacting the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for numerous portions of South Florida. Check local weather statements for updates.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

WTVJ-TV/DT Miami (NBC6)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (CBS 4)
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (Fox)

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[LBelle]

our problem is the house behind us is rented. Since the homeowner isn't there, he doesn't care. He will when his tree looks like crap. Every bit encroaching on our house and our neighbor's will be gone very soon.

[NautiNurse]

Jeb is a pro at these hurricane press conferences. Loads of practice.

[Trust but Verify]

Just going by what the experts are saying at this time is all

[LBelle]

It's amazing how grown-ups behave. Jeb is in complete control. Makes the clowns in Louisiana look even worse.

[gov_bean_ counter]

We have to stop meeting like this.

[metmom]

.....the Disney channel is keeping us sane at the moment.

Is it that bad?!?! Wow!.

[sheikdetailfeather]

Nagin and Blanco need to be listening to Jeb right now to learn what to do.

[kassie]

Thanks for the ping. I tried to answer you about E. renting out her couch, but the thread was locked!

Good idea for her to do that. ;)

What are your plans concerning Rita ???

[lugsoul]

You are correct - you won't find too many models that had an accurate landfall prediction 5-6 days out. Once it gets out into the Gulf, we'll know a bit more.

[SE Mom]

So reassuring...he is always calm and prepared.

Interesting- FOX is in Key West- but not TWC- last night they said too dangerous.

[Anita1]

Here is some information about the oil refineries close to Galveston and Houston. ExxonMobil Baytown has the largest refinery in the USA and many of the large refineries are in the Houston port area; see the link to see the information on the area:

http://www.clui.org/clui_4_1/lotl/v27/i.html

http://www.khou.com/news/local/spotlight/stories/khou050916_cd_upclose_plantsafety.6252f79a.html

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/


September 19, 2005
Rita's under pressure, for now at least
Our fate now lies in the hands of a dreaded high-pressure ridge.

I hate these things during the summer. They raise temperatures to the upper 90s, and squash any chances of an afternoon shower to cool things off or water a parched lawn.

But right now the ridge, stretching from Texas to Florida along the Gulf Coast, is saving us. It's a shield from Rita, keeping the storm to our south.

Believing the ridge will break down sooner rather than later, the late-afternoon advisory from the National Hurricane Center has Rita making landfall just south of Galveston. That's about the worst-possible case for Houston because we'd be on the wettest, windiest side.

Some computer models say the ridge will slip away by Friday, allowing Rita to make a turn toward us. Yet we probably won't know what's up with the high-pressure ridge for another day or two. Until then, here's a couple of things to watch for:

1. Will Rita speed up over the Gulf of Mexico? If so, it could make it to south Texas before the high-pressure ridge moves off. Anything in excess of 15 mph is good.

2. Will Rita do anything funny when it crosses the Florida Keys? Probably not, because there's not a whole lot of land there. But if the center bounces significantly north or south, it could be good for Houston.

As they say in the TV business, stay tuned...
Posted by Eric Berger at September 19, 2005 05:41 PM


Posted by: Laurence Simon at September 19, 2005 07:59 PM

A little FYI. The Super WalMart in Katy has already been picked clean of batteries, cook stoves, lanterns and drinking water. Many of the canned goods as well.

I'm not kidding about this. Katrina has given Houstonians The Fear. Are people overreacting? I hope so! We'd all love to see this storm hit that empty 200-mile stretch of shoreline between South Padre and Corpus.

[LBelle]

Disney channel distracts her. Her brain will be mush before all of this is over but she is happy for the moment. We all need a little down time right now.

[WoodstockCat]

what's avg water temperature in GOM right now?

[james_f_hall]

They said same about Katrina coming off Florida.

[laz]

Jeb is in complete control. Makes the clowns in Louisiana look even worse.

As different as night and day. Somebody should put together a video showing Jeb side-by-side with weepy Blanco and schizophrenic Nagin.

[metmom]

Once it gets out into the Gulf, we'll know a bit more.

If it doesn't start pulling a Hurricane Ophelia. And all those folks from NO thought they were safe in TX...

[AntiGuv]

Never mind my previous comment. I think you're correct that the water temps aren't likely hot enough for a Cat 5 like Katrina. When Katrina passed through the Gulf, it was 91-92 degree water. It's 87-88 degree now. The wind shear is extremely favorable for storm development though, but that was the case for Katrina as well. If I had to guess, assuming the storm follows the current forecast track, it will be a borderline Cat 3/Cat 4 storm at its peak.

[No Blue States]

"SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND PRESSURE FALLS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED CATEGORYONE HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED ON THE 11 AM...1500Z ADVISORY.

Well she is a Cat one entering the gulf. Once away from Cuba and FL and in the warm gulf we will have a growing hurricane going somewhere. At least it will be easier to track with an eye. Stay safe eveyone.

[WhyisaTexasgirlinPA]

Usually when I get really upset about something, it doesn't happen.......... so I'm thinking this thing is going to go elsewhere............ ;^)

[elfman2]

Hey Rodguy. Not much more than a wet gusty day here in Key Largo.

I just took a drive. Bay looks quiet. Oceanside’s forcing water into the canals, but it’s still 6 – 12” below the bank on most. I saw one house at a canal end with a couple of inches spilled into their yard. Tiny’s and Shell are open. Burger King and Walgreen’s “look” open.

There’s much less debris in the streets than after Katrina. I’m about to take my 3 y/o out so that he can have a look now.