Please see posts 154, 160, and most especially 170.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_18.gif
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
Thanks, I know it's early, but I do hope state OEP is paying attention to Rita and not focusing all their attention on Katrina. If any part of your state is in the cone, you should be keeping an eye on it.