Merkel Ahead of Schröder, but Who Will Govern Germany?

Der Spiegel ^ | 2005-09-18

[Lessismore]

Election forecasts based on initial German vote counts indicate that Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats have edged out Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats. Both parties, however, have done worse than in 2002. The question as to who will govern Germany remains open.

One thing is clear. The German voters no longer want a governing coalition pairing Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats (SPD) and Joschka Fischer's Greens. Forecasts based on initial results by the public television station ARD indicate that Schröder's SPD received just 34 percent of the vote -- 4.5 percentage points lower than the last elections in 2002.

Yet while few expected the SPD to do well, the results delivered by the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) under Angela Merkel seem set to be much lower than the party had hoped. ARD forecasts indicate that Merkel's party just barely managed to edge out the SPD, receiving just 35.2 percent of the vote and thus 3.3 percent less than in 2002.

In other words, despite months of surveys indicating that Merkel would become Germany's first-ever woman chancellor, her path may not be as clear cut as she had hoped. Merkel had hoped to be able to form a coalition with the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP) under Guido Westerwelle. Despite the FDP's surprising result of 10.2 percent -- against just 7.4 percent in 2002 elections -- the two parties together are far from the 50 percent they would need to form a governing coalition.

The Green Party under Joschka Fischer looks to have received 8.2 percent of the vote (0.4 percent lower than in 2002) and the newly-formed Left Party under Gregor Gysi and Oskar Lafontaine will become the fifth party in the Bundestag, Germany's parliament, with 8.4 percent of the vote according to forecasts.

Even worse for Merkel's CDU, her party looks to have received its third-worst result in its history and is far behind even its less-than-impressive 38.5 percent in the 2002 elections. Now, Merkel must start the process of casting about for coalition partners. On Sunday evening, she said she would begin talks with all of the major parties except for the Left Party.

One of the most obvious possibilities would be the forming of a so-called grand coalition -- a government created by pairing Germany's two largest parties, the CDU and the SPD. Such a pairing would be Germany's first grand coalition since 1966 to 1969. Given the fact that both parties are well below their 2002 results -- the SPD received 38.5 percent in the last election -- it would also be a coalition of the losers.

Indeed, despite leading a party with the best results on Sunday, it isn't even clear that Angela Merkel will become chancellor. Social Democrat party leader Franz Müntefering on Sunday claimed that the election results show that German voters want Schröder to continue as chancellor. Despite the seeming absurdity of the statement, mathematically at least, Schröder's SPD could form a coalition government with the Green Party and the Left Party. The SPD and the Greens, however, have both said they would not consider governing with the Left Party.

The other possibility which could be enough put Schröder back in the chancellery would be a so-called stoplight coalition -- a partnership of the SPD (red), the Greens and the FDP (yellow.) While such a coalition has formed governments in some of Germany's states in the past, FDP head Westerwelle said on Sunday that he would not be available for such a "stoplight" grouping. "We will continue to clearly pursue our course," said Westerwelle. "If there aren't enough votes for Black-Yellow (CDU-FDP) then we'll be in the opposition."

A combination of the CDU, FDP and Greens would also be enough for a parliamentary majority but is considered highly unlikely.

[Lessismore]

What are "overhang" seats?

Parliamentary Parity Possible

When the overhang seats are figured into the equation, the SPD could come out tied with the CDU in terms of seat distribution in the Bundestag, according to predictions put forth by German public broadcaster ARD. A complicated system of calculating both direct votes for candidates and indirect votes for political parties could produce a 223-seat parity in the parliament. An optimistic interpretation could show the SPD receiving 10 overhang seats to bring the party up to 223 in the Bundestag, while the CDU/CSU could expect to receive three overhang seats to bring their numbers up to 223 as well.

In the unlikely event this would happen, both parties would still lack an outright majority to form a coalition government on their own.

[Politicalities]

What exactly happens, under the German system of government, if nobody is able to form a majority coalition? New elections?

[Crimson Elephant]

This is a glimpse for the people that wish we didn't have a 2 party system...while it isn't perfect, the chaos of having 5 parties here in the USA would be depressing.

[dr_who_2]

Nobody. I don't see what Merkel has to gain from "leading" a grand coalition, and Schroeder is one of the walking dead.

[Betaille]

"Yeah, but the Greens are really another version of a left-wing party. More to the left than the SPD."

On social/environmental issues yes, but on economic issues they are more pragmatic and could possibly accept a market liberal coalition (CDU/FD/Greens).
I actually see this result as a defining moment for the German left though. Schroeder and the Greens have 2 options that could keep him as PM, but he they are a rock and a hard place.

Option 1: SPD/Greens/Left. This would mean that the SPD and Greens would not only have to give up all plans of economic reform, but possibly even move backwards toward more statism and deeper economic decline.

Option 2: SPD/Greens/Free. This would mean that the SPD/Greens would have to move significantly to the right on economics and essentially become a "Market Liberal" Coalition. This would be big turning point for the left in Germany, similar to the turning of the British Labour Party under Tony Blair.

[nathanbedford]

You are right in your description of Schröder in the "Elefant Runde," the post game talk show unique to Germany in which the party heads (the elephants) talk with two journalists and each other.

I think Merkel is personally finished, having forfeited her lead and shown herself inept and without charisma as a candidate. Schröder is as resiliant as Slick Willie, whom he resembles in other respects as well. In the end, I think Schröder will form another government by going to his left and cutting a deal with Lafontaine's communists (Die Linke). Sadly, Germany's parties to the left of center outnumber the count to the right of center.

If Merkel can put toghther the "Jamaica" coalition, CDU, FDP and Greens, (Black, yellow and Green, the colors of the Jamaica flag) it means that she will have sacrificed any open reapproachment with America to keep the Greens on board for economic reform at home. This is an easy choice for her as it reflects the national consensus which is generally anti American.

In my view, the right can not fashion a coalition strong enough to administer the bitter medicine necessary to reform the German economy. Half measures, like half a dram of medicine, will avail nothing except garner blame for the physician. Let the Left take the blame for the coming malaise. Especially since what is coming is worse than just "malaise" - the Chinese are coming and the Germans don't have a clue.

[Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit]

If the green join the Black Yellow government, they will almost certainly cease to exist as a party after the next election. But, it might happen anyway.

An interesting gamble indeed.

[EQAndyBuzz]

"Merkel Ahead of Schröder, but Who Will Govern Germany?"

Who cares?

[Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit]

Who cares?

Anyone with an interest in having Europe as a strong economic partner intersted in purchasing American goods and services.

Anyone who would like to see Germany rejoin the fold as a strong ally of the US rather than a potential waepons designer and producer for France and Russia.

Anyone who recognizes that Germany has (arguably) historically been the world's most competitive economny with some of the world's most inventive people.

Apparently you have neither foresight nor hindsight. Must be pleasant living in a world wearing blinders. Aferall, ignorance is bliss.

[EQAndyBuzz]

Unfortunately, Germany fell to the Socialists and along with the French will be relegated to the trash heap of history. This was the last chance for another few years that Germany can turn itself around and instead of doing it, chose to keep their cradle to grave failed social programs.

Economic partner? They have 11.4% unemployment, produce nothing of true value except cars and medical gear and they are voting along the lines of a nation that has no use for the USA.

I don't call this ignorance. I call this reality.

[ukman]

>Unfortunately, Germany fell to the Socialists and along with the French will be relegated to the trash heap of history. This was the last chance for another few years that Germany can turn itself around and instead of doing it, chose to keep their cradle to grave failed social programs.

Economic partner? They have 11.4% unemployment, produce nothing of true value except cars and medical gear and they are voting along the lines of a nation that has no use for the USA.<

These two paragraphs contain five factual errors. I'll let you work out what they are yourself. Try reading a few threads on the election and about Germany, its political and economic system etc.

[Romish_Papist]

I don't get it. If Merkel's party won a higher percentage of the vote, how can Schroeder possible be in the running to remain that the helm? I mean, why bother to vote if the person who got less of the votes can form a government and remain in power? Shouldn't the onus be on Merkel to form a government? I don't think I understand the German system very well. Pardon the ignorance.

[nathanbedford]

The problem is that Merkel got only a plurality and one needs a majority (effectively 300) to form a government.

The real problem for her is that all the parties on the right, when combined, yield fewer seats than taken by the parties on the left, which, when combined, do form a majority. The far left party is estranged from Schröder which is the only thing restraining a government being formed on the left.

If Schroder holds his nose and couples with Lafontaine, he will have to give up on most economic reforms which Germany must make to survive globalization but then, with the Greens, he will have more than enough seats.

If he looks to his right to cross the aisle, to the FDP, he can make reforms, but they have already publicly spurned him. We shall see.

Meanwhile, Merkel can cut a deal with the Greens, which means she will probably promise to oppose America in return for freedom on economic reforms. But, of course, she has to go courting in the enemy camp whether she deals with the Greens or tries for a grand coalition with Schröder's SPD party.

It is my view that both Germany and the right would not be served by a Merkel government without the power to effect meaningful reforms, which, lets face it, involve pain. In that event, let the left ride into the inevitable crisis and take over with a real mandate.

[Clemenza]

Put the troops in Poland.

[americanbychoice2]

" One step backwards for Germany, one giant step backwards for mankind "

Someone said something to that effect many years ago? :)

[nathanbedford]

It really is a massive set back for mankind, because, as Germany goes, so goes Europe. We cannot win the war against terrorism without allies and we becoming more despised here everyday.

I had nurtured great hopes that Germany would turn away from France both economically and in Weltanshauung, but alas, the opportunity has been botched like a grounder bouncing through the legs.

[Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit]

produce nothing of true value except cars and medical gear

You were making a little bit of sense until this ridiculous statement. Germany is the world's largest exporter. It has a solid manfacturing base and its exports include. THe CIA factobook description of Germany lists as its exports:

among the world's largest and most technologically advanced producers of iron, steel, coal, cement, chemicals, machinery, vehicles, machine tools, electronics, food and beverages; shipbuilding; textiles

It has about 1/5 of the population of the US and exports more. Germany is going through a rough time and admittedly is population is "confused", but at least it is doing so in a manner that is more or less benign.

Americans should be a lot more interested in enlightening the Germans than giving up on them. I find it to be contrary to your nature. What is a matter with you?

[ukman]

((sigh))
Oh course, this will solve all problems immediately...

Do you really think many people in Germany give a damn and that this will influence them? Be realistic, please.

[Clemenza]

No, but logistically it would make sense to move our forces farther east. I really don't give a damn if these little German towns lose the bases. I'm just looking out for America's best interests, not those of the Germans or the Poms.

[ukman]

Oh yes, agreed, the US forces are no longer needed in Germany, and I'm sure the old eastern bloc countries would be glad to accommodate them. Nobody in power in Germany either really gives a damn if little German towns lose some income temporarily. Plenty of other towns have coped OK before, and in fact the German Army too regularly closes bases, resulting in general moaning at first and then adapting.

Sorry, I thought you were one of those posters who think that Germany can be punished and its economy tanked when the US troops pull out, which is pretty laughable when you think about it.