Merkel Ahead of Schröder, but Who Will Govern Germany?

Der Spiegel ^ | 2005-09-18

[Lessismore]

Black - yellow - green?

[raybbr]

Wie sagen sie "Quagmire" auf Deutsch?

[FairOpinion]

This is an excellent article, gives us an idea of the actual situation and what the various parties are. Thanks for posting it.

[Brilliant]

"Merkel Ahead of Schröder, but Who Will Govern Germany?"

You mean the winner doesn't govern in Germany? This ought to be interesting, considering the ridicule the Germans directed at the US after the 2000 election.

[Lessismore]

Since both the major parties are down a few percent, it would seem that there is a possible "throw the bums out" sentiment.

[ncountylee]

We should close the bases and pull our troops (except the cemeteries).

[Brilliant]

No. Gotta remember why the troops are there to begin with.

[Lessismore]

It could happen here. The thing that mainly prevents it is that most states have a "winner takes all" approach to electing electors to the Electoral College. This makes it hard for additional parties (and we are talking 5 parties in the German election) to win enough electors to prevent either of the two major parties from securing 50% of the electoral vote.

[Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit]

"Schlammpfütze"

or "Sumpf" which is actually closer to "swamp"

[nathanbedford]

Right now, and now is too early to see clearly, the odds favor Schröder being able to form a majority coalition. His options include:1) the FDP 2) a grand coalition with Merkel's party 3) a deal with the communists under Lafontaine.

Merkel's options: 1) grand coalition 2) a deal with the Greens.

Right now it is a real Mexican standoff. But I believe either the FDP will break for Schröder (because he promises to accelerate reforms to suit them, knowing that he has already lost his extreme lefties to Lafontaine, and calculating he can hold the Greens) or, much more likely, Schröder breaks toward the communists.

A grand coalition would be a wretched result, condemning Germany to an economic slough of despond without the Left getting the blame it deserves. I would rather see the CDU and the FDP go into opposition and pick up the pieces in about 2 years.

[Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit]

Immediately following the election they had all of the heads of the main parties on an "Elfantenkreis" or "meeting of the elephants" on ZDF (2nd German TV station).

Schröder was an arrogant and obnoxious idiot. The others were all noticeably tired, and still stating their platitudes, but as the hour wore on it seemed to be clear that he most likely scnario is, as Lessimore wrote, Black, Yellow, Green.

Fischer is such an egomaniac that he doesnt want to be out of power. If they let him stay foreign minister it is possible that he will allow the Black Yellow coalition to actually govern save for lessoning environmental topics.

That is the best we will get and it is sensible. The greens have no business talking about social policy. They are an environmental movement. Perhaps an agreement can be reached and that seemed to be what Fischer was hinting at.

[muir_redwoods]

"Wie sagen sie "Quagmire" auf Deutsch?"

Stalingrad

[Voltage]

They may need to ramp up their wheelbarrow industry. To carry a billion euros for a loaf of bread. I have stamps from an earlier era in Germany, which were overprinted as one million marks, enough to mail a letter.

They love socialism too much, they are not ready for the medicine to save themselves...yet!

[Lessismore]

Even though it was said to be unlikely, I think you may be right about Fischer. And maybe he will convince his party that they can achieve more aims in government than outside it, particularly since they have actually lost some seats. Of all the parties, the Greens seem to have most to lose by perpetuating a crises.

On the other hand, it will test Merkel's negotiating skills to strike the deal with both Green and Yellow.

[jveritas]

That is the problem when you have so many parties, not a clear winner and hence coalitions of the minorities, and this will always lead to weak governing.

[schaketo]

Gerhard Schröder = Al Gore

[Lessismore]

In another story it is reported that Guido Westerwelle has promised the Foreign Minister position to his rival in the FDP, Wolfgang Gerhardt.

So this may be a problem if Joschka Fischer wants to stay on as Foreign Minister.

[WOSG]

Yeah, but the Greens are really another version of a left-wing party. More to the left than the SPD.

It's hard to see Germany really improve with the Greens in the Government.

[2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten]

Looks like it will be some good old fashion horse trading - throw 'em all in a room and see who comes out standing. If Merker can pull it off that will speak volumes about her abilities it would seem to me. Is there a deadline by which they have to form a government?

[FairOpinion]

Maybe they can create a new position: Environment Minister for Fischer, that should make him happy.

And give him enough money so he can do lots of studies, studying the problem.