[Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit]

Immediately following the election they had all of the heads of the main parties on an "Elfantenkreis" or "meeting of the elephants" on ZDF (2nd German TV station).

Schröder was an arrogant and obnoxious idiot. The others were all noticeably tired, and still stating their platitudes, but as the hour wore on it seemed to be clear that he most likely scnario is, as Lessimore wrote, Black, Yellow, Green.

Fischer is such an egomaniac that he doesnt want to be out of power. If they let him stay foreign minister it is possible that he will allow the Black Yellow coalition to actually govern save for lessoning environmental topics.

That is the best we will get and it is sensible. The greens have no business talking about social policy. They are an environmental movement. Perhaps an agreement can be reached and that seemed to be what Fischer was hinting at.

[Lessismore]

Even though it was said to be unlikely, I think you may be right about Fischer. And maybe he will convince his party that they can achieve more aims in government than outside it, particularly since they have actually lost some seats. Of all the parties, the Greens seem to have most to lose by perpetuating a crises.

On the other hand, it will test Merkel's negotiating skills to strike the deal with both Green and Yellow.

[Lessismore]

In another story it is reported that Guido Westerwelle has promised the Foreign Minister position to his rival in the FDP, Wolfgang Gerhardt.

So this may be a problem if Joschka Fischer wants to stay on as Foreign Minister.

[WOSG]

Yeah, but the Greens are really another version of a left-wing party. More to the left than the SPD.

It's hard to see Germany really improve with the Greens in the Government.

[Lessismore]

What are "overhang" seats?

Parliamentary Parity Possible

When the overhang seats are figured into the equation, the SPD could come out tied with the CDU in terms of seat distribution in the Bundestag, according to predictions put forth by German public broadcaster ARD. A complicated system of calculating both direct votes for candidates and indirect votes for political parties could produce a 223-seat parity in the parliament. An optimistic interpretation could show the SPD receiving 10 overhang seats to bring the party up to 223 in the Bundestag, while the CDU/CSU could expect to receive three overhang seats to bring their numbers up to 223 as well.

In the unlikely event this would happen, both parties would still lack an outright majority to form a coalition government on their own.

[nathanbedford]

You are right in your description of Schröder in the "Elefant Runde," the post game talk show unique to Germany in which the party heads (the elephants) talk with two journalists and each other.

I think Merkel is personally finished, having forfeited her lead and shown herself inept and without charisma as a candidate. Schröder is as resiliant as Slick Willie, whom he resembles in other respects as well. In the end, I think Schröder will form another government by going to his left and cutting a deal with Lafontaine's communists (Die Linke). Sadly, Germany's parties to the left of center outnumber the count to the right of center.

If Merkel can put toghther the "Jamaica" coalition, CDU, FDP and Greens, (Black, yellow and Green, the colors of the Jamaica flag) it means that she will have sacrificed any open reapproachment with America to keep the Greens on board for economic reform at home. This is an easy choice for her as it reflects the national consensus which is generally anti American.

In my view, the right can not fashion a coalition strong enough to administer the bitter medicine necessary to reform the German economy. Half measures, like half a dram of medicine, will avail nothing except garner blame for the physician. Let the Left take the blame for the coming malaise. Especially since what is coming is worse than just "malaise" - the Chinese are coming and the Germans don't have a clue.