Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: KC_for_Freedom
Given that the article in Science says: "We conclude that global data indicate a 30-year trend toward more frequent and intense hurricanes, corroborated by the results of the recent regional assessment (29). This trend is not inconsistent with recent climate model simulations that a doubling of CO2 may increase the frequency of the most intense cyclones (18, 30), although attribution of the 30-year trends to global warming would require a longer global data record and, especially, a deeper understanding of the role of hurricanes in the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean, even in the present climate state.", I'm wondering what you mean by 'articles like this'. The article in Science concludes we see more frequent and intense hurricanes now than 30 years ago. So is your position that politics will overwhelm scientific inquiry and cover up such findings? Or did you think the rest of the article above was from Science? It's not; while I'm not commenting on the article above, it's not from a 'National Science publication (sic)'. --R.
19 posted on 09/20/2005 3:55:39 PM PDT by RustMartialis
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies ]


To: RustMartialis

My position is two fold.

First, while hurricanes do need hot water to form, the number and severity of the storms is not well correlated to the ocean temperature. (less than .2) In fact the ocean temp has not shown a rise in temperature correlated to the rise in the concentration of CO2. An article in Scientific American in 2004 or early 2005 concluded that the oceans will act as a "sink" for rising temperature, even preventing the atmosphere from rising for well into the next 100 years. This fact, if true is both good and bad, because it means the verdict on warming or not will have to wait a long time. If it then IS a warming phenomena caused by humans, we may very well be too far along in it to stop the consequences of rising ocean water and changing agriculture climates.

The article quote you provided does not mention the lack of numerical correlation of storms to water and air temperature, it says in fact that since CO2 concentration has more than doubled the storms have increased in intensity. It sounds like the article has concluded that there is a relationship. Referring to a thirty year cycle that resulted in fewer and less severe storms for the past 15 years, the article would have us believe that it is no longer a cycle but after this next 15 years will continue to increase. To be sure the article does mention in passing that a longer time line is needed, (otherwise the lack of correlation will mean that we can't draw a conclusion about storms and their frequency that ties them to the global warming theory.)

BTW, as I understand it, the thirty year cycle is for storms originating in the south Atlantic. Storm counts world wide seem more or less to be constant.

The second point is that Scientific American runs one article (like the one I mentioned) that seems pretty free of bias and then runs ten articles that start with the assumption that warming is running out of control and makes "scientific" predictions of the consequences. The fact that a reputable publication would fall in so completely with the warming theory and its non free market agenda means that soon you and I will have to dig very deeply to find actual science amid the junk.

As far as the article from Science, I can agree with you that it is not a lie. But it also is leaning to support the global warming theory which at this time is only a theory.


21 posted on 09/20/2005 10:08:05 PM PDT by KC_for_Freedom (Sailing the highways of America, and loving it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson