Hurricane Ophelia Live Thread, Part II (Update: Ophelia expected to remain Cat 1 storm)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 10 Spetember 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Ophelia continues to churn off the off the coast of the Carolinas with a track that has confounded computer models and meteorologists for days. Hurricane watches are issued for much of the SC and NC coastline. Northern GA and southern VA coastal areas are currently within the three day cone of uncertainty. Check local NWS service for updates.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE U.S.
Myrtle Beach NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Wilmington NC NWS Local Hurricane Statements

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater WV Still Image
Morehead City Long Range Radar Loop
Wilmington NC Long Range Radar Loop
Charleston SC Long Range Radar Loop
Wakefield VA Radar
Morehead City Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic

Additional Resources:

Myrtle Beach Online
WECT-6 Wilmington News
WVEC-13 Hampton Roads/Norfolk
Hurricane City
Myrtle Beach Web Reports Surf & traffic cams

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Rebelbase]

Thanks. That leaves about 700 people on the island.

[Peach]

This storm must be driving the Weather Service folks nuts. And the mayors along the coastline.

[fredhead]

Cape Lookout seashore is only accessible by boat, no roads or bridges. It is only smart to get campers off of there now. Non-residents have been ordered to evacuate Ocracoke Island. Another good call, since there are only two ways out: 3-1/2 hour ferry ride to Cedar Island or Swan Quarter, then a long drive to get far enough inland, or a 1/2 hour ferry to Hatteras, then a drive all the way up the Outer Banks to Nags Head before you can get to the mainland.

[Dog Gone]

This has been one strange storm.

[Gabz]

Thanks - that makes total sense - obviously I wasn't thinking. My husband spent 25 years in construction and much of it in roofing and gutters, and so I am well acquainted witht he damage water can do.

[NautiNurse]

This storm must be driving the Weather Service folks nuts. And the mayors along the coastline.

When the NHC guys use descriptors including, "painfully slowly," you know it's true.

[Rebelbase]

I'd ride out a Cat 4 in the lighthouse at Cape Lookout. Cat 5 might get a bit dicey, but I don't think it would take down the lighthouse.

[Gabz]

You want the plywood installed on the outside to prevent the windows from debris shattering.

I have realized the flaw in my thinking (or lack thereof)

[Gabz]

This has been one strange storm.

You get the award for understatement of the day.

[Hatteras]

I was sitting on the beach down at Myrtle Beach this weekend just kind of weather watching (between sips on my margarita ;-)). I've never seen clouds move so slow in my life. Low clouds were moving SSW at a relatively good clip but the mid-level clouds just seem to hang there though they were making some very slow progress toward the south. I noticed these clouds because there was a distinct line just above us, clouds to the east, clear blue sky to the west that remained in place throughout the morning and then (after a run back to the ABC store) again in the afternoon on Saturday. Through the breaks in the mid-level clouds, you could see the contrails of passing jets moving quite rapidly in a northerly direction.

[Dog Gone]

Ophelia seems determined to be a nuisance, but just hasn't developed into a major threat. She keeps committing suicide by remaining essentially stationary and churning up cooler waters to feed herself.

I wish she'd just hurry up, create some mess on the Outer Banks and then head to England.

But she seems insistent on just camping out for awhile, threatening everybody and nobody.

[Howlin]

My niece in Wilmington just called and said that they have closed the schools down there tomorrow in anticipation of the storm.

Either that, or in anticipation of their bogus FEMA claims. New Hanover County had more claims than any other county in NC during Isabel, which was odd since it didn't even hit there. :-)

[Dog Gone]

Oh man. Didn't know that about Isabel. Sheesh.

At this point, we're encouraging people to move to the coast in order to cash in on the federal jackpot.

[Howlin]

I'm thinking I missed my big chance with FEMA during the ice storm in 2001.

[NautiNurse]

in anticipation of their bogus FEMA claims. New Hanover County had more claims than any other county in NC during Isabel, which was odd since it didn't even hit there.

Same with Miami-Dade last year. 9,800 Miami-Dade applicants received more than $21 million for nothing more than a thunderstorm...and FEMA paid for 203 funerals unrelated to hurricanes.

[Hatteras]

I've still got a couple of fat pines that are curled over from that ice storm. Can I still get a check for a couple of grand to clear them along with a few others that pose a hazard to the chil'run in the community? The federal government is being awfully neglectful in responding to my needs...

[Rebelbase]

Beaches are going to get severe erosion if Ophelia just wobbles round right up against the coast for the next 4 days.

[CoolChange]

Just announced here (in Horry County) that there is a voluntary evacuation for coastal areas of Horry and Georgetown Counties in SC. Red Cross shelters are being opened up at a couple of schools, so no school tomorrow.

[NautiNurse]

Somebody thinks this storm is finally going to move...

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 25a
Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on September 12, 2005

 
...Ophelia moving slowly northwestward...

 
a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for
the southeast coast of the United States from north of Edisto Beach
South Carolina northeastward to Cape Lookout North Carolina.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

 
Watches or warnings may have to be extended northward later today.

 
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States coastal region
should monitor the progress of Ophelia.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 31.8 north... longitude 77.3 west or about
175 miles east-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 255
miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

 
Ophelia is moving toward the northwest near  4 mph and a slow...
generally northwestward...motion is expected today and tonight.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near  70 mph...with higher gusts. 
Ophelia has the potential to restrengthen into a hurricane
during the next day or so.

 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the
center.  Some of the outer rain bands are near the coast in the
warning area.

 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb...29.20 inches.

 
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...31.8 N... 77.3 W.  Movement
toward...northwest near  4 mph.  Maximum sustained winds... 70 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 989 mb.

 

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM EDT.

 
Forecaster Pasch