[Brilliant]

Alright, but it took them ten months to get 1,500 barrels of oil. That is not enough.

[okie01]

Alright, but it took them ten months to get 1,500 barrels of oil. That is not enough.

It was a small-scale test -- a lab experiment to determine economics and feasibility.

[Maceman]

Alright, but it took them ten months to get 1,500 barrels of oil. That is not enough.

But this was only a small test plot, 20 x 30 ft. And they turned off the heaters after getting that 1,500 barrels, because all they wanted to do was prove that the technology works.

I don't doubt that a large full-scale production effort will yield much, much more.

[SAJ]

Hey, c'mon. This was just a lab study. First, you see if the theory is verifiable (check), then, you put your PGs and physicists to work to figure the optimum energy in/out ratio and most efficient spacing of the shafts (bet your bucket they're working on that right this second), then you get financing in place (no problem, Shell is super-flush now), then you lease the land.

Then, first phase, you target something on the order of 1/2 of estimated possible production. And ramp up from there. Call it 2-3 years on a ''crash'' basis, 5 on a ''normal'' basis.

Once the process is started, it's self-propagating, assuming only that new shafts are added on a systematic basis.

What I can't figure out (doubtless Shell have figured it, of course) is how to capture the liquid fractions. Why won't they just seep away?

Any thoughts, folks?

[Kozak]

Alright, but it took them ten months to get 1,500 barrels of oil. That is not enough.

It was a proof of concept test well, not a production prototype.

[JasonC]

The real question is not the time, which is just starting up, but the capital investment required. But that goes into the price calculation, and the claim is the answer is $30. Which is a perfectly believeable figure. German synthetic gas from coal in WW II cost about $60. Naturally, when you can get oil out of the ground in Saudi Arabia for $3, it does not make sense to pay $30 for extraction, if the Saudis meet demand. But then, if they meet demand, the price shouldn't be $70 when the cost is $3. If they don't meet demand, you can cap prices by just putting enough of this online, and paying for supplimental shale oil whenever prices go above the cost.

[afraidfortherepublic]

...it took them ten months to get 1,500 barrels of oil...

It was a small pilot project.